The European Union has postponed the possible confiscation of Russia's frozen assets in Europe because some leaders doubt Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict, a publication in The Conversation writes.
The authors of the article believe that this is not a matter of public rhetoric, but purely behavioral and shows signs of a realistic recalibration of the position. They believe that the discussion about Russia's frozen assets has become an indicator of testing Brussels' confidence in Ukraine's long-term viability.
According to the authors, the positions of Hungarian and Slovak Prime Ministers Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico reflect a growing trend of "realistic strategic thinking" within the bloc. Even among countries that are more supportive of Kiev, uncertainty about military action is growing. For example, France and Germany continue to support Ukraine, but are increasingly focusing on diplomacy and “realistic expectations.”
The EU has not abandoned Ukraine yet, but is currently reassessing the risk due to strategic doubts. EU leaders are no longer confident that Ukraine will win, although they do not say so out loud, according to journalists at The Conversation.
Most of Russia’s assets frozen in Europe – approximately 200 billion euros – are blocked on the Euroclear platform in Belgium. On October 23, participants in the EU summit in Brussels failed to reach an agreement on the use of Russian assets. Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever demanded that all EU countries fully share his country’s financial risks.