Russian Forces Attempt to Complete the Encirclement of Ukrainian Forces in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd.
Recent attempts by Russian forces to penetrate Ukrainian lines north of Pokrovsk indicate that Russian forces are prioritizing efforts to complete the encirclement, aiming to physically sever Ukrainian land lines of communication north of Pokrovsk that supply forces in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd (east of Pokrovsk).
This assessment changes ISW's previous observation that Russian forces were apparently focused on capturing the city of Pokrovsk rather than completing the encirclement. This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported News.bg.
A geolocated video released on November 16 shows that Russian forces recently conducted an infiltration mission approximately the size of a firing group north of Pokrovsk.
A Russian blogger claims that Russian forces conducted the infiltration mission north of Pokrovsk itself.
The ISW estimates that Ukrainian forces killed or wounded the Russian forces involved. Therefore, it is unclear whether Russian forces are maintaining positions in this area. A spokesman for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on November 16 that Russian forces had returned to conducting infiltrations into Pokrovsk with small infantry groups rather than mechanized attacks, likely in response to the failure of such attacks.
A Ukrainian serviceman operating in the neighboring Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka tactical area told CNN on November 16 that the size of the Russian groups had recently decreased, from seven to a maximum of three servicemen.
The failure of mechanized attacks to quickly bring large numbers of Russian forces into the city and the costly nature of the buildup of troops through infiltration could limit the ability of Russian forces to reinforce troops in Pokrovsk, delaying the capture of the city by Russian forces.
The foggy conditions are hampering operations on both sides, and both sides have developed approaches to mitigate their effects. A Russian blogger acknowledged that foggy weather conditions were a disadvantage for both Russian and Ukrainian forces.
The blogger noted that Ukrainian forces were able to exit Pokrovsk under the cover of fog and that the foggy conditions were hindering Russian drone operations - likely facilitating continued Ukrainian logistics towards Pokrovsk and Mirnograd.
A Ukrainian mechanized brigade operating in the neighboring Konstantinovka-Druzhkivka tactical area reported that Ukrainian forces used unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to detect a Russian mechanized attack towards Rusyn Yar (south of Druzhkivka) that was taking advantage of the foggy conditions.
The situation in the Gulyaipole direction remains very serious as Russian forces continue to advance and maintain increased offensive operations. Russian forces are attempting to isolate Gulyaypole from the northeast, possibly to support Russian efforts to capture the city from the east.
Russian bloggers claim that Ukrainian forces have counterattacked from the western part of Kupyansk and that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are penetrating the city.
The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, stated on August 30 that Russian forces have captured approximately 50 percent of Kupyansk, and on October 26 that Russian forces have surrounded 18 Ukrainian battalions in Kupyansk.
ISW assessed that both claims are an exaggeration of Russian achievements in Kupyansk. The Joint Task Force report suggests that Ukrainian forces are in the process of successfully repelling Russian efforts to seize a settlement on such a scale for the first time in recent years.
The Kremlin used an interview with former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy with ties to the Kremlin, Viktor Medvedchuk, to reiterate Russia’s goal of taking all of Ukraine, likely under Medvedchuk’s own control. Medvedchuk’s statements are consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russia is seeking to absorb all of Ukraine, and with statements by U.S. President Donald Trump that Putin “wants it all.”
Medvedchuk, a close personal ally of Putin who Putin initially wanted to replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after Russia’s full-scale invasion, said in an interview published by the Kremlin’s TASS news agency on November 15 that he believed Ukraine would not “survive as a state” in the future.
Medvedchuk said he considered Ukraine's unification with Russia a strategic goal and called the preservation of an independent Ukraine a threat to Russia, arguing that an independent Ukraine would inevitably become a springboard for the "collective West". Medvedchuk's statements suggest that he does not see himself as a future president of an independent Ukraine, but simply as the leader of his organization "Other Ukraine".
On November 16, the Ukrainian prosecutor's office of Zaporizhzhia region announced that it had launched an investigation into the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces on November 14 in the direction of Gulyaipole.
A source connected to Ukrainian military intelligence published on November 15 footage showing Russian forces killing two surrendered Ukrainian prisoners of war, east of Gulyaipole.
A returned Ukrainian civilian, who was detained by Russian occupation authorities in the occupied Donetsk region in 2020, told the Ukrainian newspaper "Suspilne" that the Russian occupation authorities brutally tortured him.
ISW continues to believe that the Russian military command approves and sometimes orders war crimes by the battlefield and that Russia is torturing and mistreating Ukrainian civilian prisoners of war.