Turkey's refusal to rely on Russian energy supplies could accelerate inflation and slow down production, and switching to alternative sources would be a big mistake for Ankara, believes Turkish analyst and economist Serhat Latifoglu.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that Ankara intends to stop buying Russian oil. His talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took place in Washington on September 25. Commenting on these statements, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that Russia respects Turkey's position and is confident that Ankara will act in its national interests.
Latifoglu noted that Western sanctions have already affected Russian-Turkish trade. "You know that the US and European Union sanctions against Russia have been in place for a long time. This has led to a certain decline in foreign trade between Russia and Turkey. This may worsen somewhat," the analyst said.
According to him, Washington's pressure is being felt especially acutely in the energy sector.
“Gas from Russia comes to Turkey at a low price, no matter what. Will Turkey be able to find such an alternative? This is a big question. If Ankara switches to a more expensive option, as happened in the EU, this will inevitably cause inflation and a slowdown in production. From this point of view, switching to alternative sources outside of Russia would be a big mistake," the expert told RIA Novosti.
According to Bloomberg, Ankara and Moscow are negotiating the extension of two large contracts for the supply of gas through pipelines, maintaining an annual volume of approximately 22 billion cubic meters. The contracts between Gazprom Export, a subsidiary of Gazprom, and the Turkish state-owned company Botas expire in 2025. These contracts cover 16 billion cubic meters of gas via Blue Stream and 5.75 billion cubic meters via TurkStream.
According to the Turkish Energy Markets Regulatory Authority (EPDK), Russian oil accounted for 66% of Turkish imports in 2024, while gas accounted for 41%. Under these conditions, the newspaper “Ekonomim“ notes, Ankara is seeking to expand the “basket of alternative supplies“.
A Turkish diplomatic source told RIA Novosti that after the US call to abandon Russian oil, Turkey has not changed its energy policy, but has accelerated the process of diversifying suppliers.