Despite all the talk of Western sanctions that could collapse the Russian economy and put the Kremlin in its place, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems unfazed, Politico reports.
The article notes that regardless of the bloodshed on the front lines or Russians waiting in line for gasoline due to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, he remains committed to his maximalist demands. The publication believes that Trump's chances of ending the war are 4:1.
Meanwhile, there are domestic political limits to what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can agree to without provoking a public backlash.
Nevertheless, Trump often seems more open to the possibility of a deal. After the Alaskan summit with Putin, Trump was recorded telling French President Emmanuel Macron that he believed Putin really wanted to “make a deal with me.”
“Of course, the Russian leader’s stubbornness frustrates Trump and makes him wonder at times if he’s being manipulated – exactly what Melania Trump reportedly believes Putin is doing,” the article said.
According to the publication, the Russian leader is adept at manipulating Trump, and the timing of his appeals to his American counterpart is impeccable. Take, for example, his two-hour phone call last month, in which he hinted at the possibility of a summit, just as Trump hinted at transferring Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.
“It could be argued that prolonging the war benefits Putin. This further worsens the situation of already troubled European countries and risks eroding the transatlantic alliance. The distracted West is also helping Putin’s ally Xi Jinping as he considers whether and when to take action against Taiwan,” the journalists write.
It is noted that Putin’s rule could be at risk if he suddenly ends the conflict. A rapid exit from the military economy is likely to provoke dangerous socio-political conflicts, according to Ella Paneya, a sociologist at the think tank “New Eurasian Strategies“. According to her, this will cause “fierce and fierce competition for dwindling resources“. The article says:
“Given the acute shortage of manpower in Ukraine – Ukrainian units can deploy only a dozen soldiers per kilometer of the front line – there is always a chance of a breakthrough at the front line. In short, Putin may calculate that he will get more if he persists: more land, Western security guarantees so weakened as to be useless, and a cap on the size of Ukraine’s postwar army. This will conveniently pave the way for a subsequent resumption of Russian revanchist action.“
It is important to note that the Russian economy is struggling due to high interest rates, labor shortages, and rapidly rising government borrowing costs. There are concerns about the bad debts taken on by Russian banks. Ukraine, however, could find itself in a difficult situation this winter due to Russia’s relentless attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and the Europeans’ failure to provide Kiev with sufficient financing.
Retired general and former supreme commander of U.S. forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, believes that the war in Ukraine will not end as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he can win. According to him, US President Donald Trump's diplomatic efforts are “doomed to failure“.