US intelligence has concluded that Nicolas Maduro's closest allies are best-suited to lead an interim government in Venezuela and are capable of providing stability if he loses power, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources.
The CIA report was presented to President Donald Trump and a select group of administration officials weeks before the US military operation in Venezuela. It does not address how Maduro could be removed from office, but the authors have also tried to assess the situation in the country.
The analysts concluded that opposition leaders Edmundo Gonzalez, considered the de facto winner of the 2024 elections, and Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado will not be able to provide legitimacy and control the security forces.
The intelligence report influenced Trump's decision to support Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who was sworn in as Venezuela's interim president on January 6, over Machado. The report said Rodriguez and two other senior officials were capable of "maintaining order" in the country.
Sources of the publication did not name other possible candidates, but the newspaper reported that they include Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez.
Experts from Latin America have previously warned, including during Trump's first term, that the overthrow of Maduro without a “worthy replacement“ could lead to the strengthening of criminal groups, which in turn would lead to a security crisis in the country. Tulane University professor David Smilt called the possibility of Machado's return to power “magical realism“. According to the analyst, the best option is to encourage Rodriguez to initiate elections, but the problem is that “no one in the United States seems to be actively involved in the negotiations“.
The Trump administration is constantly changing its position on cooperation with Rodriguez, the newspaper notes. The interim president initially said the US had committed an act of aggression against Venezuela, but later expressed a willingness to cooperate with Washington and held talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Nicolas Maduro, who appeared in a US court with his wife on January 5 on charges of “narcoterrorism”, said he remained president of Venezuela.