The Chinese representative presents Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro with a porcelain horse. "Great!", Maduro rejoices and promises to continue the close partnership between China and Venezuela. A few hours later, US special forces attack Caracas and detain Maduro, who is taken to the US. Even Maduro's closest allies in Beijing apparently had no idea what was coming.
Venezuela served as a bridge for China
China is one of the few countries that recognized Maduro's electoral victory in 2024, ARD recalls. Russia and Iran also supported the Venezuelan autocrat. The authoritarian government in Beijing not only supported the US adversary in Venezuela politically, but also financed the Maduro government with billions in loans that were repaid in cheap oil. China paid for this oil in yuan, not in US dollars, as is the world practice. This was an attempt by Beijing to strengthen its currency at the expense of the US in international business. Venezuela was a bridge for China in Latin America. Today, these relations seem completely lost.
US President Donald Trump will now use the threat of additional military intervention to force Venezuela to allow US oil companies to take advantage of the raw materials in the Latin American country. Venezuelan oil seems to be already being sent to the US, writes ARD.
For now, China can only publicly declare its disagreement. "The US is using force against Venezuela and claims that the principle of "America first" also applies to Venezuelan oil. "This is coercion and a serious violation of international law," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning. Beijing is believed to have lent Venezuela about $60 billion. Experts estimate that nearly $10 billion has not yet been repaid. China will probably have to give up the idea that it will get this money back for now.
Problems for Iran and Russia too
Even if oil supplies to China are cut off, this is a solvable problem for Beijing, says Guo Chunhai of the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. "Venezuelan oil is only a part of China's imports - about 4.2%. This will not harm Beijing," Guo said.
However, there is another problem - China must prepare for the possibility that its other oil importers may encounter similar problems. The US is putting serious pressure on both Russia and Iran. China imports oil from both countries - at low prices, because both are subject to sanctions.
China is the most important trading partner after the US for a number of countries in Latin America, writes ARD. Chinese companies have built a deep-sea port in Peru and have exclusive rights to use it through the Chinese company "Cosco". The goal is to transport goods from China to South America from there, as well as the natural resources that Beijing buys from other countries on the continent. The communist authorities in Beijing also maintain partnerships with Brazil, where they sell their controversial technologies in telecommunications and satellite services.
"Many countries will stay away from China now"
In the latest state strategy for relations with South America, the Chinese government expressed a desire to expand its cooperation with the countries on the continent. This will likely be significantly more difficult after the US military operation in Venezuela, says Jin Canrun, a political scientist at Renmin University in Beijing. "Many Latin American countries are likely to be scared now and stay away from China. In the long run, however, these countries - especially those with leftist regimes - will return to their own policies," Jin believes.
At the same time, Donald Trump's government is not completely ruling out the possibility of oil supplies from Venezuela to China continuing. However, this will happen at market prices, Jörg Endris from the ARD specifies. Beijing is giving signals that it may prefer this option to a supply interruption. "No matter what the political situation in Venezuela is, China is ready to deepen its economic and trade ties with the country," Beijing said.
While the US is taking military action in Latin America, China is pushing for diplomacy, writes ARD. Although Beijing still has the world's largest navy, it has no military bases in South America and has no experience with military action abroad. In the trade conflict with the US, China has repeatedly exerted pressure by imposing stricter controls on the export of natural resources - for example, rare metals. In the case of Venezuela, Beijing does not seem to want to use this card for now.
Author: Jörg Endris ARD