Is it possible that the younger son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will take over the presidency after the end of his father's final term in 2028? Are preparations already underway for such a development? What is the support in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) for Bilal Erdogan as a possible new party leader and presidential candidate? Is a scenario in the style of other Middle Eastern countries regarding the transfer of power possible in Turkey?
These and other similar questions have been preoccupying Turkish society recently amid speculation on the topic and publications in the local and foreign press, writes BTA.
The intensification of media coverage of Bilal Erdogan and comments about him on social media has led to allegations that the president's entourage is making efforts to normalize the idea of family succession to the highest office in the state, writes "Turkish Minit".
The president's forty-four-year-old son is currently not holding elected office and does not serve in the cabinet. Observers, however, note that his comments have recently been spreading "more quickly in Turkey's media environment, with more independent headlines, more videos and more favorable coverage that treats him as a political actor, not just the president's son," the site also states.
"The maneuvers to succeed the Turkish president have begun," the "Economist" magazine recently wrote, placing Bilal Erdogan among four names that stand out as potential contenders for the presidency. The publication claims that although the AKP is not talking "loudly" about the period after Erdogan, preparations for the new leader are already underway.
A poll cited by the magazine places the president's younger son in third place among the most distinguished possible successors to the presidency. In first place among them, with 33.4 percent, is Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, second, with 32.5 percent, is former Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, and Erdogan's son gathers support of 14.2 percent. Fourth place is given to another member of the president's family circle, namely his son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar, the architect of Turkey's drone systems and chairman of the board of directors of the high-tech military equipment company "Baykar". He garners 12.9 percent support, according to a survey conducted in December by the Reflex pollster, in which 2,386 people answered the question "Who do you want to see at the helm of the AKP after Recep Tayyip Erdogan?".
Bilal Erdogan himself said in an interview with the Russian state news agency TASS last year that he has no ambition to be the next president of Turkey and that he is rather focused on his non-governmental work in the fields of education and culture.
In response to a question about whether he would like to become president in the future, Erdogan's son said that he has no political ambitions.
"I am often asked this question, but I want to remain a leader who inspires young people to work in areas where they feel strong," Bilal Erdogan told the Russian agency. "I also work for the revival, preservation and transmission of culture to new generations. I want to spend my life in this direction," he added.
However, it is not ruled out that the younger son of the current head of state has changed his mind and is even warming up to the political arena, given his appearances alongside his father at meetings with foreign leaders and his active position on the Gaza issue, Turkish media noted.
"(Transfer of power from father to son) may exist elsewhere, but I do not think that such a model would be widely accepted in our country," commented Bulent Arınc, one of the founders of the ruling AKP and a former associate of President Erdogan in an interview with the opposition TV "Sözcu". According to Arınc, although under certain conditions everything is possible, one should not rely on public support in this case. He stressed that succession from father to son has no established tradition in Turkish republican politics.
Bulent Arinc also believes that "given the political style of (Tayyip) Erdogan" the choice of the next presidential candidate could be surprising.
Mehmet Metiner, a former AKP MP, also joined the discussion on the topic, and in a social media post defended the idea of Erdogan's son taking over the post after him.
"Bilal Erdogan is a capable son of the nation who possesses the knowledge necessary to govern the country", said Metiner, quoted by Bizim TV. He accused critics of the idea of hypocrisy, who say that "Turkey is not a sultanate", since, in his words, Erdogan's son is subject to double standards, and "sons of other fathers can become deputies, party vice-chairmen, ministers and deputy prime ministers".
Indicative of the support for Bilal Erdogan, according to the Turkish newspaper "Yeniçag", was the pro-Palestinian rally on January 1 on the Galata Bridge in Istanbul, among whose initiators was the president's son. The organization was supported by a number of AKP party functionaries and deputies, as well as current and former ministers, including the ministers of justice, agriculture, health, trade, etc. However, the absence from the rally of authoritative figures from the ruling party, such as former parliament speaker Bülent Arınc and former MP Şamil Tayyar, as well as leaders and MPs from Devlet Bahçeli's Nationalist Action Party (MHP), an ally of the president, made an impression.
The regular presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are just over two years away - enough time for the Turkish president to surprise everyone, even his closest entourage. If not likely, then at least possible is the option of Bilal Erdogan succeeding his father as chairman of the AKP and running for president. However, this will depend not only on his relationship with the current leader, but also on the real chances of facing a possible strong opposition candidate, such as the ousted mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu or the mayor of Ankara Mansur Yavas. Whether the dynastic principle will prevail in the governance of Turkey and whether a post-Dogan or only post-Tayyip era awaits after 2028 - all these questions are still waiting for answers.