A series of public appearances and his presence alongside the Turkish president at meetings with foreign leaders have fueled speculation that Erdogan's youngest son - Bilal - is preparing to be his political successor. Although he does not hold public office, he is increasingly confidently stepping onto the political stage, writes “The Economist“.
Bilal Erdogan is on the boards of a number of pro-government foundations and has become one of the faces of the World Nomad Games - Turkey's version of the Olympics. He has also embraced the Palestinian cause: last month he used the Gaza war as an argument for giving his father more power: "If we had made our president stronger, Israel would not have been able to commit this genocide," Bilal Erdogan said at the time.
Amendments to the constitution for a new term?
However, it is difficult to imagine what new powers President Erdogan could acquire, having already removed most of the restrictions on his presidential powers, the prestigious British publication commented on this occasion. It also recalls that Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003 - first as prime minister and then as president - is not eligible for another term after the current one, which expires in 2028. But if the constitution is changed or early elections are held, this could provide him with another five years in power, explains “The Economist“.
To push through the necessary amendments to the constitution, Erdogan will need the votes of at least 400 of the 600 deputies in the Turkish Mejlis, which support he does not have. He could gather 360 votes to initiate a referendum on the issue, but there is a risk that he will fail in the referendum. It is much more likely that he will ask parliament to hold early elections - probably at the end of 2027, the publication also says.
Erdogan's health is a state secret. But at 71 years old, he has clearly lost some of his strength. If he decides not to run, he is expected to nominate a replacement to run on behalf of his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Since he has long since turned the AKP into a body for approving his personal decisions, it is unlikely to face any resistance, writes the Economist.
At least four candidates for Erdogan's job
Publicly, AKP politicians are reluctant to think about a future without Erdogan at the helm. "There is no plan B," says a senior party member. Behind the scenes, however, a battle is raging for Erdogan's favor. Four men are seen as the best candidates to succeed Recep Tayyip Erdogan politically: Selçuk Bayraktar, the president's son-in-law and architect of Turkey's successful drone program; former Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu; Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan; and Bilal Erdogan. In a survey conducted in December 2025, 33.4% of Turks gave their preference to Hakan Fidan for the leadership of the Justice and Development Party. Bilal came in third with 14.2% - ahead of Bayraktar (12.9%), but behind Soylu (32.5%).
Bilal Erdogan himself denies having political ambitions, writes the German "Frankfurter Rundschau" on the same topic. The publication quotes his statement from last year, made in St. Petersburg, according to which Bilal prefers to "stay in the non-governmental sector, work with civil society and inspire young people to take responsibility for the things that are really important to them".
The most experienced is Hakan Fidan
Of the four, who are being considered as Erdogan's successor, the most experienced is Hakan Fidan, writes the "Economist" on the subject and recalls that for more than 10 years he headed the Turkish intelligence service before becoming foreign minister. Speculation about his ambitions intensified last fall after Fidan revealed that the production of the Turkish fighter jet, one of the greatest successes of the country's thriving defense sector, was being delayed because the US Congress refused to issue a license to export the engines. All this came to light just days after Erdogan's meeting with Donald Trump at the White House, which both leaders described as a success. It showed that Hakan Fidan could spoil his boss's party, the British publication also wrote.
Winning another term could be a tall order for Erdogan – even though his main opponent, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, is behind bars on trumped-up charges and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is being pursued by prosecutors. High interest rates, new taxes and spending cuts are undermining the Turkish president’s popularity. Inflation remains high at over 30%, which is unacceptable to most Turks.
Most voters don’t like this idea
In current polls, President Erdogan is trailing his opponents Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, the mayor of the capital Ankara, who is seen as the opposition’s backup candidate for the presidency. Any candidate to succeed the current Turkish president will face serious difficulties, especially if his surname is Erdogan, commented „The Economist“.
Most AKP voters in Turkey dislike the idea of a government that functions like a family business, says Turkish political scientist Seda Demiralp. And university professor Burak Bilgehan Özpek says: “Erdogan is an autocrat, but he has democratic legitimacy that Bilal Erdogan does not“.
Democracy in Turkey is in a bad state. But Erdogan's future dynasty is by no means guaranteed, commented the British „The Economist“.