Ukrainian Navy: Moscow struggles to save its fleet after Crimea withdrawal

In an interview with Radio NV, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk, discussed the situation in the Black and Azov Seas and the almost complete absence of the Russian fleet.

— Can you tell us what the current situation is in the Black Sea? How often do Russian ships go out and how active are they there?

— You could say they are not active at all — they haven't gone out for several days. Even submarines are missing. The reasons may be different, but the fact is that we don't observe any presence. This is in the Black Sea.

The Azov-Black Sea region is usually considered as a single entity. We haven't seen them in the Sea of Azov for a long time — in fact, for months. I think we will soon be able to celebrate, so to speak, the anniversary of Russia's absence from the Sea of Azov.

— We used to hear a lot about the movement of Russian ships, then about their destruction and how they are trying to hide them. What is the situation now? Are they always hiding in the bays? Have they been moved to Novorossiysk or somewhere near Ossetia or Abkhazia? Where are they now?

— All the valuable assets have been moved to their base in Novorossiysk. They are overcrowded there, since the base is not designed to accommodate the entire Black Sea Fleet — even in its reduced form.

It is relatively safer in a military port, at least from drone strikes, but they are forced to leave the port when there is a threat of missile strikes.

So they find themselves in a strange situation: it is dangerous to stay in the port, but it is also dangerous to go out to sea. This is the main dynamic at the moment.

As for Sevastopol in Crimea, there remain auxiliary ships there - support ships that are not armed, but are still part of the fleet. They are numerous, but they are not of great interest to us; it is not worth wasting expensive ammunition or planning complex operations around them.

The remaining warships there include large landing ships or ships that have lost combat readiness - either damaged before arriving for repairs or while already at the base. They do not pose a threat at the moment and are of no strategic interest.

They now guard their bases with very small units - various boats of the "Mangust" and "Raptor" class. These are standard small patrol boats used mainly for anti-sabotage tasks.

This sums up the current state of their naval bases.

There were attempts to enter Temryuk Bay in the Sea of Azov. But after suffering strikes on the eastern coast, they left the Sea of Azov, finally realizing that Admiral Oleksiy Neyzhpapa's warnings about fire control in the area were not just words.

As for Abkhazia - a base has been built there for some time. But it is not designed for this type of ship. It is more of a coastal facility for the Russian border guard, not a battle fleet. They can dock there for a while, fly their flag, put on a show, but this is not a base for regular deployment.

— Between 2022 and 2024, we witnessed a lot of strikes on Russian ships. Their intensity seems to have decreased. Why?

— Because they no longer go out to sea. Obviously, to hit a target, you have to see it. As is known: you can't sell something worthless unless someone buys it. The same logic applies here. To hit a ship at sea, it has to be at sea.

When they go out, these are mostly submarines. And a submarine cannot be hit by a naval drone. This is the method they have chosen for patrolling.

But you have to understand — these ships are complex machines. They need maintenance. It is not infinite. If the submarine acts as a surface ship, constantly on patrol, sooner or later it will have to be repaired.

Perhaps this is the reason for the current pause. By the way, they have four submarines in the region, three of which are equipped with “Caliber“ cruise missiles.

— Have you suggested that drone developers start working on ways to hit submarines? After all, they already shoot down planes, helicopters and launch unmanned aerial vehicles.

— You know, these types of weapons systems are usually discussed after they have been used. When the Russians start posting their sad videos, when they are already online — then we can talk about new systems. I can't confirm anything yet.

— There hasn't been much news of missile or other weapons being launched from the sea lately. Am I correct in thinking that Russia is barely firing anything from the Black Sea at the moment — most of the strikes are from the air?

— The ballistic strikes come from Crimea. The operational-tactical missile system “ Iskander-M“ is located there, and they use Crimea to launch ballistic missiles.

As for our maritime zone – the ports. This spring we witnessed two ballistic missile strikes on port infrastructure. On March 11, four foreign civilian sailors died. And just last week they launched another strike. Fortunately, there were no deaths this time. This is just luck, because the ports are active, people are working. Previous strikes have caused casualties.

I have been to all these strike sites. Usually there are several casualties – always port workers. Sometimes they are employees of loading and unloading companies or others, but they are always personnel.

As for launches from offshore platforms – this year we are observing approximately one case per month. The number of missiles varies – sometimes four, sometimes ten. It depends on which launch platforms are at sea and how they are used.

There are many reasons for this. One of the main factors is their separation from Sevastopol. It took them half a year to bring a crane to Novorossiysk – that "superpower" – just to load the missiles.

But in general there are other problems related to the maintenance of missile systems. Separating them from the main base is important. The logistics and infrastructure have been built up for years and reconfiguring them is not an easy task. Still, we assume that all launch platforms are armed – over 50 in total.

— Just for comparison, how many launches were there per month in 2022-2023?

— Much more often. They used this type of weapon much more often when they were based in Crimea. The missiles are produced in sufficient quantities to supply the Black Sea Fleet, especially given the current pause. Then, yes, they used them more than once a month. I can't even remember the exact numbers - it was all part of combined attacks.

They still use the airspace for attacks from aircraft - at the tactical or operational-tactical level. But now their main platform for strikes is ground systems - ballistic.

Earlier, we saw systems like "Val" or "Bastion" more often. These are anti-ship missile systems that they repurposed to strike ground targets. I won't call them "targets", because what they hit cannot be considered military targets. And there is a lull in this regard. This year they have used them only once - a P-800 Onyx launched from Crimea.

So, yes, we can say that the use of naval platforms is now minimized.