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Ukraine: Russia's biggest mistake in this war

Russia underestimated the strength of Ukrainian society and its ability to resist and self-organize

Feb 4, 2026 18:52 43

Ukraine: Russia's biggest mistake in this war - 1

Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure are under massive Russian shelling. For 20 hours a day, people are left without electricity, water and heating - and are forced to endure all this in temperatures outside of minus 15 degrees. Therefore, it is not surprising that the mood in Ukraine is changing overall: tension is growing, and exhaustion is taking over. However, most Ukrainians are not willing to accept a peace that would be forcibly imposed on them, according to data from several sociological institutes.

Ukrainians are not willing to compromise

Given the harsh winter and the ongoing attacks from Russia, the share of pessimists is growing, says Oleksiy Antipovich, founder of the “Rating Group“. However, this reflects a change in the emotional state of the people rather than a change in their political attitudes. Despite the unfavorable circumstances, Ukrainians are not inclined to give in to the Kremlin's demands and accept peace at any cost. "Putin's shelling and the cold as a means of pressure worsen the situation of the people, but this does not change their attitude towards Vladimir Putin, Russia and the war. Ukrainians do not want to make concessions - neither territorial nor of any other nature," Antipovich told DW.

Andriy Bichenko, a sociologist from the Ukrainian center "Razumkov", comes to a similar conclusion. "The majority of Ukrainians know from accumulated experience that capitulation or signing an unfavorable peace agreement will not improve the situation. Ukrainians do not need to be explained who the Russians are and how it all started - they saw it with their own eyes. Public opinion on this issue has not changed significantly, and Ukrainians continue to behave - despite everything that is happening to them, "he told DW.

According to a survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), conducted between January 9 and 14, 2026, 69 percent of Ukrainians continue to see the war as an existential threat. People believe that Russia wants to "commit genocide" and "destroy the Ukrainian nation and statehood." In February 2025, 66% of Ukrainians thought so, and 77% of respondents continue to believe that Ukraine is able to resist despite the Russian offensive.

“The results of the survey show that Ukrainians remain steadfast and optimistic despite all the difficulties of the war“, Anton Grushetsky from the KMIS told DW. “An absolute majority believes that Ukraine has the strength to continue its effective resistance. People who consider Ukrainian resistance hopeless remain in the minority.“

Unbreakable solidarity

Oleg Sahakyan from the Ukrainian “Platform for Resilience and Solidarity“ also notes that the constant Russian attacks, the destruction of infrastructure and the protracted nature of the war have not led to a greater willingness among Ukrainians to compromise with Russia. On the contrary, exhaustion and deprivation further intensify people's anger against the aggressor Russia.

The political scientist points out that social tension in Ukraine periodically erupts in the form of protests, which, however, are local and not directed against the central government. “These are reactions to specific inactions, to a lack of decisions at the local level. Neither public opinion nor polls show an increase in tension against the central government“, ​​emphasizes Sahakyan. He also sees signs that a significant part of Ukrainians are “ready to continue to endure the war“.

Ukrainians help each other

“One of Russia's biggest mistakes at the beginning of the invasion in February 2022 was that it underestimated the strength of Ukrainian society and its ability to self-organize. It continues to underestimate them today“, says military expert and former adviser to the Ministry of Defense Oleksiy Kopytko.

According to Kopytko, people's willingness to help each other goes beyond the family or circle of friends. Interaction between people who barely know each other or do not know each other at all has become a key factor in the country's survival, he emphasizes.

Support for the President

According to a survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 69% of Ukrainians do not believe that the current negotiations in Abu Dhabi will lead to lasting peace. Nevertheless, people are interested in the negotiations, emphasizes Oleksiy Antipovich: “All hopes are tied to Volodymyr Zelensky - not to Russia, not to the negotiating teams and not to individual foreign leaders.“

Experts emphasize that social cohesion and internal unity are important factors that strengthen the positions of the Ukrainian leadership in peace negotiations. Political scientist Sahakyan says: “Unreserved support for the president is an advantage for him in the negotiations. Ukrainians have a bad experience with the Minsk agreements, which led to an even bigger war. Therefore, now they realize how valuable it is to be united“, he adds.

Author: Liliya Rzheutskaya