The Kremlin continues to maintain its claim that the current Ukrainian leadership is illegitimate. In an interview with TASS on February 15, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin repeated the refuted claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is "illegitimate". He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal from March 2025 for the United Nations (UN) to establish an interim external administration in Ukraine is still an option.
This is written by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Kremlin's calls are a rejection of Ukraine's sovereignty. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and White House National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt rejected such proposals when Putin first presented them in March 2025.
The Kremlin’s proposal for UN election oversight is an attempt to give Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a veto over any resolution that would lead to Russia’s desired outcome of a pro-Kremlin political settlement in Kiev.
The Kremlin continues to signal that it will reject any election outcome that does not result in such a pro-Russian government in Ukraine. Galuzin claims that Ukraine will try to prevent "Ukrainian citizens" living in Russia from voting in future Ukrainian elections.
Kremlin officials also claim that Russia's illegal, fraudulent referendums in the occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions in 2022 show that Ukraine does not need an extended ceasefire to hold elections.
The Russian elections and referendums in 2022 and 2024 were neither free nor fair; they were autocratic and manipulated. Furthermore, the Russian legal regime in effect at the time of these events did not explicitly prohibit elections, while the Ukrainian constitution and martial law legislation do. Zelensky has repeatedly stated his intention to hold free, fair, and democratic elections in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution and law as soon as possible.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently said that a post-war Ukraine should be "friendly" and "benevolent" towards Russia.
Long-term US security guarantees for Ukraine should precede an agreement to end the war, to prevent the Kremlin from fulfilling its stated intention to reject such guarantees after Ukraine has committed to cede territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on February 14 that he had met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and had a phone conversation with US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former senior adviser to the US President Jared Kushner.
Zelensky said that the United States is offering security guarantees for post-war Ukraine that will last 15 years, but called for guarantees for at least 20 years, if not more.
Zelensky also called on the United States to provide security guarantees "first" - repeating Zelensky's statement from February 14 that any agreement on security guarantees must precede any agreement to end the war.
Zelensky said that Russia seeks to control all of Ukraine - in line with long-standing ISW assessments.
Kremlin officials often claim that all of Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblast are part of the Russian Federation and that Russia intends areas of the occupied Kharkiv Oblast to act as a "buffer zone" to defend the occupied Luhansk region.
The Kremlin has also demonstrated its commitment to its original military goals, including replacing the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government that would grant Russia political control over Ukraine, even if Russia does not physically control all of its territory.
The Kremlin's consistent rhetoric about Russia's commitment to its original military goals, especially statements aimed at domestic audiences in Russia, show that the Kremlin is not preparing Russian society to abandon these original goals.
General of the Army General Staff Valery Gerasimov continues to exaggerate Russian successes on the front in order to influence ongoing negotiations and force the West and Ukraine to give in to Russian territorial demands. On February 15, Gerasimov stated that Russian forces had captured 12 settlements and 200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the first half of February 2026.
ISW has observed evidence that Russian forces captured about 203 square kilometers between February 1 and 14. Gerasimov has placed great emphasis on Russian gains in small villages along the front line, attempting to present these achievements as significant. Gerasimov’s report glosses over the fact that these small villages and open fields do not require the same resources and effort as large, well-defended cities. Russian officials take advantage of the fact that most people have no idea where they are or how big the locations are.
Gerasimov has attempted to downplay Ukrainian gains in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. Gerasimov acknowledged recent Ukrainian counterattacks in the direction of Khulyaypole, but said that elements of Russia’s Eastern Group of Forces are repelling the attacks. Gerasimov also said that Russian forces are continuing to expand the "buffer zone" in Sumy and Kharkiv regions and highlighted the claims of capturing Sidorovka and Popivka (both northwest of the city of Sumy).
Ukrainian forces liberated territory in the Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions in late November and early December, so that Russian forces lost control over 106 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian forces also liberated a large part of Kupyansk and its surroundings in late December, and Russian forces lost control over 305 square kilometers.
Russia is reportedly testing a stratospheric communications system as an alternative to Starlink, which some Russian bloggers have already dismissed as an inadequate replacement. The Russian Foundation for Advanced Research Projects, a Kremlin-created agency for advanced military research, told the Kremlin news agency TASS on February 12 that Russia had conducted the first flight of the Barrage-1 unmanned stratospheric platform, which can carry 5G extraterrestrial communications equipment.