Professor Feng Yujun, one of the leading Chinese experts on Russo-Eurasian affairs, told The Economist that Russia will surely lose the war in Ukraine. He is the director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
In his words, it is unlikely to end soon and will have a deep and lasting global impact. However, several factors will lead to the loss of the Russian aggressor. The first is the extraordinary level of resistance and national unity demonstrated by Ukrainians.
Secondly, Ukraine receives international support, which is maintained, although it has recently fallen short of Kiev's expectations. The third reason is the nature of modern warfare, which involves a combination of industrial power and intelligence. Russia has still not recovered from the dramatic deindustrialization it suffered after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The last factor is information. When it comes time to make decisions, Vladimir Putin is caught in an information cocoon thanks to being in power for so long. The Russian president and his team do not have access to accurate intelligence. The system they run lacks an effective error correction mechanism. Their Ukrainian colleagues are more flexible and efficient.
With these factors in mind, Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. The Chinese professor says that Russia's nuclear arsenal is no guarantee of success. He gave the example of the US and its campaigns in Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan.
Kiev has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire on the “Korean” script is off. The war became a turning point for Vladimir Putin as his regime was placed in international isolation. The political risk in Russia is very high, and examples of this are Prigozhin's rebellion and the partisan attacks in Belgorod.
After the war, Ukraine will have the chance to join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose influence over its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. Europe has realized the huge threats to the security of the continent and no longer has illusions about Putin's Russia.