NATO will not survive without the US and Ukraine will be the first victim

"NATO will not survive without the US and Ukraine will be the first victim in Europe. After conquering all of Ukraine, Putin is likely to focus on the Baltic states," writes Foreign Affairs.

Last month, NATO, the world's most successful military alliance, celebrated its 75th anniversary. Some fear this may have been his last anniversary leading the United States. Former US President Donald Trump still considers the alliance outdated. If re-elected, he said he would encourage Russian leaders to do "whatever the hell they want" of member states that do not pay what he considers sufficient for defense. Trump's second presidency could have severe consequences for European security.

Trump's defenders say he is bluffing to pressure Europe into spending more on defense. But former US officials who worked closely with Trump on NATO during his tenure are convinced he will withdraw from the alliance if re-elected.

"Trump resents the more moderate advisers who kept him in check during his first term. If he gets to the White House in 2025, the restrictions will be removed".

The US Congress is also concerned. It recently passed legislation that prohibits a president from withdrawing from NATO unless Congress approves by a two-thirds vote in the Senate or an act of both houses of Congress. But Trump can circumvent that ban. He has already expressed doubts about his willingness to abide by Article 5 of NATO's mutual defense clause. By cutting off funding, recalling US troops and commanders from Europe and blocking major decisions at the North Atlantic Council (NATO's top advisory body), Trump could dramatically weaken the alliance without formally leaving it. Even if he does not completely withdraw American support, Trump's current stance on NATO and his disinterest in supporting Ukraine, if adopted as national policy, will shatter European confidence in American leadership and military resolve.

According to journalists, if Trump is re-elected and continues to exercise his anti-NATO instincts, the first victim will be Ukraine. Trump opposes additional military aid to Kiev and continues to coddle Russian President Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, if the US weakens or ends its defense commitments to Europe, European countries will feel more vulnerable and may send less and less military aid to Ukraine.

"With drastic aid cuts, Kiev could be forced to negotiate an unfavorable deal with Moscow that would leave Ukraine as a small country militarily and economically vulnerable to Russia. If Ukraine's defenses collapse completely, brutal repression and forcible Russification await about 38 million people," writes Foreign Affairs.

Without American help, NATO will lose much of its military advantage over Russia. The European defense industry remains highly fragmented, and developing the necessary defense capabilities to compensate for the loss of American support may take the rest of this decade.

Damages will not be limited to Europe.

If Trump wants to withdraw from NATO to punish allies for their inadequate defense spending, why would the United States maintain its commitments to its Asian allies, many of whom currently spend even less than NATO countries?

For now, the defense ties between the United States and its allies in Asia, such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, are growing stronger in the face of Chinese provocations. But a lack of confidence in US commitments could lead some of these countries to pursue nuclear weapons to offset the nuclear advantages of China and North Korea, undermining the fragile stability that has prevailed in the region for decades.