The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who died on Sunday in a helicopter crash, could trigger a nightmare scenario for Russia scenario, which is why Moscow is watching with caution what is happening in Iran at the moment.
This was stated to focus.de by Thomas Jaeger, an expert on international politics, according to whom there will currently be a power board in Tehran.
With Raisi, the regime in Tehran lost an important figure. He was the favorite to succeed Khamenei as Iran's religious and political leader. However, the deaths of Raisi and the foreign minister did not immediately change the stability of the Tehran government. But protests are possible, which is what the regime in Tehran and Russia fear the most.
„At this stage I definitely expect a power struggle. The various factions in the regime in Tehran will now position themselves and argue over which candidates will be nominated. Khamenei will decide who will be allowed to run in the end,” said Thomas Jaeger.
The regime is in a very difficult phase - in several respects. Externally, the conflict with Israel. Internally, the regime was rocked by mass protests, although they were put down with brutal violence. Added to this is the uncertain economic situation. The next president also faces these challenges. And they cannot be solved sustainably without a fundamental change of the regime, the expert predicts.
From a Russian perspective, Raisi's death is a change that is now being closely watched. It is in Moscow's interest to preserve the stability of the regime in Tehran. And everything will be done so that there are no changes in the services important to Moscow - especially in the field of military cooperation.
The worst-case scenario for Moscow would be for Raisi's death to become a signal for mass protests. Potential for this – as we have seen in recent waves of protests – certainly exists in Iran. All processes that threaten the stability of the regime are a problem from Moscow's point of view. Russia and Iran are ruled by similar authoritarian regimes that trample on media freedom, human rights and any beginnings of opposition and democratic society.
Regarding speculation that Israel could be behind the crash, Thomas Jaeger ruled out that version.