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Political earthquake in France

Macron's shock decision is a big gamble for his political future

Jun 10, 2024 08:09 71

Political earthquake in France  - 1

French President Emmanuel Macron caused a political earthquake yesterday when he called early parliamentary elections after being defeated in the European elections by Marine Le Pen's far-right party , reported Reuters, reported BTA.

Macron said the result of the vote was difficult for his government and he could not ignore it. In an address to the nation, less than two months before the Paris Olympics, he said the lower house elections would be held on June 30 and the second round on July 7. Macron's shock decision is a very risky move for his political future three years before the end of his term. If Le Pen's "National Assembly" party wins a parliamentary majority, Macron will not have much room for maneuver in domestic politics, the agency notes.

With between 31.5 and 32 percent of the vote according to the institute "Ipsos" and the Institute for Public Opinion Research, the far-right party "National Assembly" with the leader of the list, Jordan Bardella, made a big splash in the European elections, achieving his best result in a national election (excluding the second round) and will contribute decisively to increasing the power of the nationalist and sovereignist camp in the European Parliament - the main lesson that can be derived from the vote in the 27 member states, says AFP.

The Macronist list, led by Valerie Aye, a former MEP unknown to the general public, trailed far behind with less than half the vote, roughly 15 percent, followed closely by Social Democrat Rafael Glucksmann. He received between 14 and 14.3 percent, more than double his result in 2019, the agency added.

Macron's gambit, according to Reuters, is reminiscent of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's decision to call early elections last year after the far-right trounced his party in local elections. Sánchez managed to retain power, but only after months of wrangling with regional parties and a controversial amnesty deal for Catalan separatists.

France has previously had periods of so-called "coexistence," when the president is from a different party than the one holding the parliamentary majority. In such cases, the Prime Minister nominated by the majority party becomes the leading figure in making decisions about domestic policy. The last similar period was from 1997 to 2002, when the president was Jacques Chirac and the socialist Lionel Jospin was the prime minister.

Yesterday's elections set the stage for the presidential elections in 2027, DPA points out. Macron, who twice won a runoff against Le Pen, will not be able to run again after two terms at the head of the country. It's unclear who the center-right forces will bring into the race and who even has a chance against Le Pen. Yesterday's results are a huge blow to Macron's government, which has already lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly, DPA notes.

Marine Le Pen, daughter of far-right founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, has successfully rebranded the party once known as the Front National, giving it a much more moderate image in recent years to make it more attractive for center-right voters.

The European elections were a heavy blow for Macron, who advocates a pan-European effort to protect Ukraine and the need for the EU to strengthen its own defense and industry, AP said. The leading candidate of the "National Assembly" Jordan Bardella, campaigned to limit the free movement of migrants and to soften EU rules to combat climate change. The party no longer wants to leave the EU and the Eurozone, but according to AP, it is trying to weaken them from within.

Elections for the European Parliament were held in all 27 countries of the bloc in the last 4 days, and 360 million people had the right to vote. Although the vote does not directly affect national politics, as it only determines who will be French MEPs in the EU legislature, domestic political issues are usually crucial to voters' choices.