Reuters reports on how the second round of France's parliamentary elections on July 7 will play out and what the possible scenarios are, after exit polls showed that the far-right party "National Assembly" of Marine Le Pen won yesterday's first round, BTA reported.
HOW WILL IT BE HELD?
Elections for the 577 seats in the National Assembly of France are held in two rounds.
In constituencies where no candidate won outright in the first round (by more than 50 percent), the first two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5 percent of the total number of registered voters in that election region, move on to the second round.
Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat.
The high voter turnout recorded yesterday means around 300 constituencies face a potential run-off with three contenders, which in theory favors Le Pen's party.
To prevent these three-way runoffs and block the "National Assembly," French center-right and center-left politicians have long practiced a so-called "republican front," in which the third-place candidate drops out of the race and calls on voters to unite behind the candidate ranked second.
All candidates who make it to the second round must decide by Tuesday evening whether to withdraw or participate in the second round.
WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE THIS TIME?
Last night many political leaders gave guidance to candidates and voters.
President Emmanuel Macron called for a "big, clear democratic and republican unity for the second round", effectively declaring himself against both the far-right National Assembly and the far-left Inflexible France party, part of the left coalition "New National Front", which also includes moderate left parties.
His former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, has explicitly called on his party's candidates to drop out if they are in third place and rally behind centre-left to centre-right candidates, excluding radical parties.
On the left, the leaders of the Socialist Party and "Rebellious France" also called on their third place candidates to drop out to block a "National Assembly".
The conservative Republican Party, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its MPs joining the National Caucus, did not provide guidance.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?
The effectiveness of the "republican front" has weakened over the years and many voters no longer listen to the advice of party leaders, Reuters notes.
It is also possible that candidates do not wish to opt out despite instructions from political headquarters in Paris.
But the negotiations over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could significantly change the outcome. It probably depends on these negotiations whether Le Pen's party will achieve an absolute majority in parliament or not.
This makes the outcome of the second round extremely difficult to predict. Even sociologists have urged caution about their own predictions about places.