Voronezh-Malshevo Air Force Base in Southern Russia, 160 km from the Ukrainian border, is perhaps the most important - and most vulnerable - target in Russia, writes "Forbes" magazine.
However, the US may have issued a directive to keep the base untouched. To observers, this seems absurd: "Forbes" notes that the 47th Guards Bomber Regiment of the Russian Air Force is bombing Ukraine from this base using Su-34 aircraft. Therefore, according to the new US doctrine, the airport should have long been considered a legitimate target.
Attack on Russia: Experts oppose Joe Biden's veto
"Forbes" refers to the claims of the open-source information service Frontelligence Insight that the Voronezh-Malshevo is within range of US-made ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems). "Ukraine could disable the entire operational fleet stationed there if it were allowed to launch such an attack," Frontelligence Insight said. This is also the assessment of the Institute for the Study of War: Joe Biden should "authorize Ukraine to attack all military targets in the operational and deep rear areas of Russia with weapons supplied by the United States", notes the IIV, as reported by "Newsweek". .
The think tank recently published a map full of markers showing which areas under the occupation of Russian troops are within range of US long-range missiles. From it, it is clear that the Voronezh airport is in range even of the ATAKMS version, which has a range of up to 500 km and has been used by Ukraine for some time. "Forbes" however, it clarifies: "Ukraine's armed forces also have other ways to stop bombers carrying planning bombs".
In principle, the US government has authorized attacks on military targets: according to the "Washington Post" US President Joe Biden authorized Ukrainian commanders "to retaliate against Russian forces attacking them or preparing to attack them.
In principle, the US government has authorized attacks on military targets: according to the "Washington Post" US President Joe Biden authorized Ukrainian commanders to "retaliate against Russian forces attacking or preparing to attack them in and around Kharkiv, near the border in northeastern Ukraine". This means that Ukraine can return fire if it is attacked or intends to neutralize military facilities just across the border, adds "Kyiv Post". The Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and the Russian city of Voronezh are located less than 400 km from each other.
IIV is also categorical in its analysis: Ukrainian officials regularly point to the need for additional air defense assets and modern fighter jets to be able to conquer the airspace and match the forces in the skies with those of the Russians. In the end, however, all serious attempts failed, and on the contrary, the Russian armed forces "took advantage of the continued limitations of the Ukrainian air defense shield to regularly deploy Russian tactical aircraft along the front line to carry out large-scale bombing of Ukrainian positions in support of the ongoing Russian offensive operations", writes IIV.
According to reports from the Center for Strategic Communications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the first six months of this year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed or damaged the following aircraft: nine Su-25s, one Su-57, two MiG-31s, about 13 Su- 34, two Su-35, two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, one Il-22M11 and one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. The defeat of the Su-57 bomber is particularly painful for Russia, notes the "Frankfurter Rundschau". In early June, Ukraine announced that it had fired on this Russian stealth bomber for the first time. This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. It is not yet clear whether the plane was damaged or destroyed.
Patriot missiles in position: Ukraine hopes for seven systems, but needs 25
The plane was hit on the ground and on Russian territory - probably by a drone. Ukraine refers to satellite images of an attack on the Akhtubinsk airport in the Astrakhan administrative region, "589 km from the zone of hostilities in Ukraine", as announced by the Ukrainian secret services through various media. In this way, the Ukrainians showed Putin's troops that they must take seriously the threat of counterattacks on their own territory. According to Air Force Index Flight Global, Russia has 134 Su-34 bombers, several dozen of which are said to be based at Voronezh-Malshevo, according to "Forbes" - mainly under the open sky, which makes them an ideal target for Ukraine.
According to "Forbes" there is no alternative to the use of ATACMS - only this weapon system would cope with the danger of bombing missions with planning bombs at the base. According to the author of "Forbes" David Ax second best option is to increase the use of mobile batteries "Patriot" against approaching bombers - in his view this is not a good idea due to lack of capacity.
"Ukraine currently has only three such systems - two from Germany and one from the USA. However, it considers seven of them to be the absolute minimum and aims to expand them to 25 systems, writes the Neue Zürcher Zeitung. One of them defends Kiev, reports "Forbes". Others appear to be located around Odessa and Kharkiv. "Two more batteries that Germany and the US have promised but have not yet delivered could protect the Dnieper and the large city of Kryvyi Rih", suggests "Forbes".
According to "Noye Zürcher Zeitung" Germany is not the only country that has initiated the delivery of another "Patriot" system. in April: Italy accordingly sends Samp/T - an air defense system comparable to the "Patriot" in terms of firepower and range. "It now appears that with additional foreign assistance, the minimum number of seven Patriot fire units can still be reached," concludes the "Naye Zürcher Zeitung" However, "Forbes" it is doubtful that the Ukrainians will move batteries from the supposed hotspots to the northern border to seal the route between Voronezh-Malshevo and Kharkiv. Bloggers at Frontelligence Insight also warn against moving because the battlefield is too transparent for positions to be changed safely; Ukraine is said to have already lost two launchers to drone attacks.
F-16: under current conditions will not help against the bombers
Even the announced reinforcement of the Ukrainian Air Force with Western aircraft does not seem to be an alternative to ATAKMS attacks, writes Justin Bronk: "Even if the long-awaited F-16, the Swedish Gripen C and the French Mirage 2000-5F are taken into service by Ukraine , the interception of Russian planning bombs will be a herculean task: Near the front line, Ukrainian pilots will have to approach at a very low altitude in order not to be detected and eliminated by Russian air defenses with a short or long range," the scientist from Britain's Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI).
According to him, the "air-to-air" The AIM-120C AMRAAM, carried by the F-16 and Gripen C, and the Mirage 2000-5F's MICA IR/RF short-range missiles "would have difficulty reaching high-altitude, high-speed Russian fighter jets , 60 to 70 km behind the front line". This is because the missiles are launched at such low altitudes into dense air with high drag and rise against gravity to reach the altitude at which their targets are located. According to Bronk, this would result in a relatively small effective range.
At high altitude, ie. in thinner air and when launched from a supersonic carrier, the range of the weapons would be increased - but at the same time the visibility of their carriers to Russian air defenses would also increase.
Justin Bronk further appreciates Ukraine's successful use of long-range drones against the Russian Aerospace Forces: "Kiev seems to be following a clear strategy - either to force the Aerospace Forces to evacuate their bases within a radius of several hundred kilometers from the Ukrainian border, or for Russia to deploy an excessive amount of air defense systems for their protection."