Some unnamed US government officials seem to believe that Ukraine does not need to release its occupied lands and population to win the war, despite recent clear statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia will not accept a cessation to the fire through negotiations on any terms other than Ukrainian capitulation, and will not abandon its goals of the total destruction of the entire Ukrainian state - not just the lands it currently occupies.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On July 9 in the "New York Times" (NYT) reported that anonymous US officials believed that "even without formally reclaiming land, Ukraine could emerge victorious in the war by moving closer to NATO and Europe.
This US assessment is based on several faulty assumptions - first and foremost the assumption that Ukraine's membership in NATO or the European Union (EU) is guaranteed. Ukraine's membership in NATO and the EU should not be taken for granted when discussing the future of Ukrainian security.
This assessment also rests on the assumption that the loss of the lands currently occupied by Russia and the civilian population under Russian occupation would not seriously threaten Ukraine's future economic viability and its ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks, which, as ISW often points out, is not the case.
The lands that Russia currently occupies are both economically and strategically necessary for Ukraine, and their continued occupation will deprive Ukraine of economic resources and strategically important lands.
Putin himself has stated that Russia will not be satisfied with ending the war along the lines it currently holds, and has specifically called for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as a prerequisite for any kind of "peaceful" negotiations with Ukraine.
Areas Putin is currently pushing for include, among others, the major cities of Kherson and Zaporizhia. In addition, Putin has continually portrayed the war as a fight against NATO and has reiterated his insistence that Ukraine change its constitution to formally renounce any aspirations to join the alliance.
There is no reason to believe that Putin will agree to a ceasefire that would bring Ukraine closer to NATO. Finally, this proposal hinges on the false assumption that Russian aggression will "end" with the conclusion of the war under the conditions of Russia.
On the contrary, ISW assesses that an agreed ceasefire on Russian terms would give the Russian military time to rest and recover, possibly before launching a future attack on Ukraine from a much more advanced and fortified frontline.
p>
Putin is firm and consistent in his ultimate goal of destroying the Ukrainian state and will not give up until he feels he has achieved it.
Several independent investigations, including that conducted by the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, concluded that on July 8, a Russian missile hit the Kyiv Children's Hospital "Okhmatdit" against the background of the ongoing official Russian denials and evasions.
On the night of July 8-9, Ukrainian forces launched a series of drone strikes against Russian energy and military infrastructure in Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Astrakhan and Volgograd regions.
Russian forces recently confirmed their advance southeast of Chasov Yar, near Avdeevka and southwest of the city of Donetsk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of the city of Kharkiv.
The Russian authorities continue to deploy contingents of the Russian Guard in occupied Ukraine to perform law enforcement functions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a joint statement on strengthening mutually beneficial political, economic, energy and military-technical cooperation between Russia and India.
Putin has stepped up efforts to strengthen Russian relations with non-Western countries through individual appeals, although he is likely to emphasize Russian-Indian cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS as part of broader Russian efforts to create of an alternative "Eurasian security architecture" using existing Eurasian multilateral organizations.
Modi has tacitly endorsed the Kremlin's false narrative that Russia is interested in a peaceful, negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine, possibly in exchange for deepening economic, energy and technology cooperation with Russia.
Putin may have promised to bring back Indian volunteers fighting in Ukraine during a private dinner with Modi in Novo Ogarevo, Moscow Oblast, on July 8.