In recent weeks, the discussion about ending Russia's war against Ukraine has gained new momentum: the so-called "peacekeeping mission" of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Donald Trump's statements about his readiness to "end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours", the peace plan of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. But what surprised many observers were the words about alleged territorial compromises by the mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko, in an interview with the Italian newspaper "Corriere della Sera".
Referendum on territorial concessions?
Until now, Ukrainian officials have preferred to avoid the topic of possible territorial compromises or concessions in the name of ending the war. Earlier, Kiev insisted that the return of the 1991 borders was necessary. Will Zelensky have to continue the war with new casualties and destruction, or will he consider a territorial compromise with Putin? And if so, what pressure will America exert if Trump wins? And how do we explain to the country that it is necessary to give up parts of our territory that cost the lives of thousands of our heroes who participated in the war?”, commented Klitschko to the Italian edition. He also suggests that President Zelensky "may have to hold a referendum" for possible territorial concessions to Russia.
Does the almost simultaneous appearance of several peace initiatives containing a clause for territorial compromises on the part of Ukraine and the corresponding statements of the Kyiv mayor mean that Kyiv is leaning towards a diplomatic option to end the war with Russia? How acceptable is this to Ukraine and its Western partners? "Ukraine remains ready to negotiate with Russia if Moscow proves that it is willing to negotiate in good faith," Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said during talks with his Chinese counterpart today. However, Kiev has not yet seen such a desire on the part of the Kremlin.
False start and settling political scores
The Director of the Center for Political Studies "Penta" in Kiev, Vladimir Fesenko called Vitali Klitschko's statements a "false start", because for now there are no real negotiations for peace in Ukraine - there are only initiatives and plans, which do not necessarily become the basis for negotiations. Klitschko is settling his political accounts with President Zelensky because of a long-standing personal conflict, the political scientist believes. "It is impossible to sign an agreement in secret, because one way or another it will have to be carried out in public. And that's when public consent will be needed, a referendum is needed, Klitschko says, implying that Zelensky will not give up any territories. And here, Klitschko's personal emotions towards Zelensky are clearly manifested, Fesenko believes.
These more than two extremely difficult years for Ukraine, during which the large-scale Russian invasion continues, as well as changes in the political dynamics in Europe, and possibly in the US, have led some Ukrainian politicians to start talking about the possibility of territorial concessions, says Roger Hilton, researcher at the Slovakian think tank GLOBSEC. "The fact that this concept is expressed publicly by a person like Klitschko is an acknowledgment of a very difficult political choice for the country," says the expert, noting that "such statements by the mayor of Kyiv may be an internal political test of how far this position will be accepted by Ukrainian society”. Klitschko, who has not hidden his presidential ambitions before, decided to take advantage of the situation to gain political dividends, Hilton suggests.
Territorial compromises in Ukraine are not profitable for Europe
Klitschko's statements about a possible referendum on territorial concessions cannot be seen as consistent with the "peace initiatives" of Viktor Orbán, says Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of the independent Polish magazine "Visegrad Insight?. "Although peace is sought by all countries, above all by Ukraine itself, Orban's initiative is a position of appeasement of Russia. All such strategies in history have proven wrong because they have led to new wars," the analyst recalls, and claims that whatever plans and initiatives to end the war emerge, they must ultimately be an expression of Ukraine's will alone. and Western allies must respect these sovereign decisions.
At the same time, Roger Hilton believes that such compromises would be painful for Ukraine, but also disadvantageous for Europe. "I believe that most of Ukraine's Western allies would not accept the country's relinquishment of parts of its territory, as this would create a number of unresolved problems for Europe, and globally would become a precedent for other authoritarian leaders seeking to illegal seizure of territories", explains the expert.
Is Ukrainian society ready for territorial concessions?
How are the ideas of territorial concessions perceived in Ukrainian society? Sociologists claim that since the spring of 2023, Ukraine has seen a gradual increase in the number of people who are ready to make such concessions for the sake of achieving peace as quickly as possible.
In May 2024, 32 percent of respondents expressed readiness for discounts, compared to about 10 percent in May 2023. At the same time, most respondents - 55 percent - are against any territorial concessions to Russia, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Sociological Institute. For comparison: between May 2022 and May 2023, about 8-10 percent of respondents were ready for territorial compromises, while the absolute majority - 82-87 percent - were against any concessions.