Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Said This Week That Kiev Is Ready for Peace Talks with Russia, Despite Moscow Not Giving Such a Signal, Reuters Reported. A Little Later, However, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov Said That This Message “Can Be Said to Be in Unison with Our Position”. And today, in an interview with the Associated Press, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's adviser, Mykhailo Podoliak, said that concluding an agreement with Russia to end the war with Ukraine would be tantamount to a deal with the devil.
Reuters recalls that in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine while freezing the current positions was rejected after contact between the two sides through mediators.
In May, Reuters reported that Putin was ready to stop the war in Ukraine with an agreed ceasefire, but was also ready to continue fighting if Kiev and the West did not react.
And in June, the Russian leader indicated that Russia would end the war only on the condition that Kiev abandons its ambitions for NATO membership and completely surrenders control over the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims. However, the Ukrainian authorities rejected the proposal, calling it tantamount to capitulation, Reuters recalls.
Meanwhile, the number of Russians who support peace talks to end the 29-month-old war in the neighboring country has reached its highest level ever - 58 percent, the English-language publication “Moscow Times“ (MT), which has been declared a foreign agent, reported on July 9. This is one of the key conclusions in the latest sociological survey by the “Levada Center“ - the last major Russian independent public opinion research agency, conducted at the end of last month.
The director of “Levada“ Denis Volkov explains this and other changes in public opinion with a change in official rhetoric, especially that of President Putin.
In an interview with MT, Volkov said that in recent weeks Putin has spoken more often about peace talks: "that we (Russians) are interested, that Russia is interested."
“The decline in supporters of negotiations was influenced by Putin's election campaign, during which he began to actively raise the issue, emphasizing that "we must stand our ground, not bend," etc., Volkov explains.
Support for continuing the war remains visibly high in Moscow – 56% despite the traditionally liberal bias in the capital, the poll shows.
In general, I can explain these numbers by the fact that many liberal-minded people have left Moscow and they no longer determine the climate in the city as they used to, Volkov summarizes.
On the other hand, the analyst continues, Moscow is a very ideologically charged city, to a large extent a city of bureaucrats. It is important to say that Moscow does not suffer like Belgorod or other border cities. People there can lead a normal life.
And although the majority of Russian respondents say they support achieving peace as soon as possible, only 17% believe that Russia should make significant concessions to reach an agreement with Kiev and its Western allies, a previous survey shows, MT specifies.
This is a fairly stable group, mainly people who do not approve of Russia's actions in Ukraine, Volkov says. However, most Russians are against the return of the occupied territories to Kiev (73-74%) and are even more categorically against Ukraine joining NATO (83%).
The latest survey by “Levada“ also reveals that about 1/3 of Russians see the use of nuclear weapons as an acceptable solution, the sociological agency notes. This is a perspective that, according to Volkov, is connected with the frequent discussions of the use of nuclear weapons in the media and by representatives of the authorities.
Discussing this topic in the public space creates the impression that this is possible, Volkov tells MT. But in any case, for 52% of Russians, the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable.
At the same time, about 77% support the Kremlin's “special military operation“ a percentage that has remained stable throughout the armed conflict, which is largely in line with support for Putin's regime.
When we ask further questions about why they support it, the answer is most often “Who else should we support? We support our own, not the other side“, people say. “They are our boys, our soldiers, our people, and we support them“.
Those who do not support the war are more likely to believe that Putin’s regime is to blame and believe that Ukraine and the West are on the right side of things. They largely identify with and like the West, while the majority believe that Russia is right and the West is wrong.
A significant portion of respondents (about 30 percent) express weak support for the war and point to a number of considerations. Nearly 40 percent say they would not have started the war if they could go back in February 2022. They say that the war is a bad thing, it should not have started and it should end quickly, etc., Volkov summarizes.
But at the same time, many of those supporting the negotiations believe that it is none of their business to decide. They believe that Putin started it, so let him finish it“. And also that “the authorities know better, and we are small people“.
About 65% of respondents blame NATO and the West for the destruction and death in Ukraine – a number that has increased by nearly 10 percentage points in the last year.
Volkov attributes the widespread support for the regime and the invasion of Ukraine to several factors. The main one is Russia's ability to maintain economic stability despite the war and Western sanctions. The macroeconomic situation is not just stable – the majority of the population believes that it is improving. The exception is the upper middle class in the largest cities.
Working class Russia enjoys a steady increase in wages thanks to increased funds allocated by the government, the sociologist reports.
Another key factor is the Kremlin's success in insulating a large part of the population from the consequences of the war.
As the head of the “Levada Center“ notes, public attitudes changed noticeably in the fall of 2022, when the Kremlin announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists for the war. Since then, however, the military has relied mainly on voluntary enlistment, and ordinary Russians have remained unaffected.
“The majority's non-participation (in the war) has dampened the biggest fears and complaints about the government, so approval ratings remain high, Volkov explained.
“The majority is not emotionally invested (in the war), has no family members (at the front), does not live on the borders (with Ukraine). Yes, there are fears and concerns, but overall life goes on as before and even better, given the way ordinary people perceive the economic situation.
The third factor is the cohesion of society around patriotism, which 48% of respondents mentioned. They point out that they are “proud of their country” regarding the conflict with Ukraine.
Volkov draws attention to the fact that many Russians lack a clearly formulated opinion on many political issues and therefore rely heavily on what they are told by the traditional established media. And this narrative is under the tight control of the ruling party.
In Russia, this dominance is guaranteed by control over television, which remains the main means of information, by the closure of some non-governmental websites and by the implementation of the law on foreign agents, which greatly complicates the life of critical journalists, Volkov summarizes.
He emphasizes that Putin's rating remains high thanks to the economic situation, while in Ukraine, the approval rating of President Volodymyr Zelensky is falling again because of it, as the economic situation in Ukraine is becoming more complicated.
In an analysis published on July 18 on Radio „Deutsche Welle“ (DV) Lidia Rzheutska writes that according to a recent survey, a large part of Ukrainians believe that there should be a peace agreement, but not on Russian terms. According to experts, Ukrainian society is divided and confused in the conditions of a war that has lasted longer than expected.
So far, President Zelensky has consistently rejected any possible agreements with the current Russian leadership and even issued a decree that excludes negotiations with President Putin, DV recalls. But the situation may change, Rzheutska writes.
Zelensky even said that Russian representatives should attend the “second peace summit“, which Ukraine plans to hold in November.
According to a poll by the Ukrainian think tank “Razumkov Center“ for the electronic newspaper “Dzerkalo Tyzhnia“ (“Mirror of the Week“), 44% of Ukrainians in areas behind the front line believe it is time to start official negotiations between Kiev and Moscow; 35% believe there is no reason to start negotiations, and 21% have no opinion.
The results also show that Ukrainians are categorically against Ukraine accepting and fulfilling Putin's recently announced conditions for ending the war. Almost 83% reject the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions that are not under Russian control, and about 84% are against the transfer of these territories to Russia.
In addition, 77% are against the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia.
As for the neutral and nuclear-free status of Ukraine, the attitude of the population in the Kiev-controlled areas is not so clear: 58% are against such a status, while 22% support it.
When asked what the minimum conditions for concluding a peace treaty with Russia should be, over 51% say that Ukraine should be liberated from Russian occupation forces and be within its 1991 borders. Although the majority of Ukrainians want to return to these borders, one in two (46%) believe that it is not shameful to refuse to serve in the army. Only 29% disagree, and 25% have no opinion.
“This reveals the disappointment among the population. In conditions of war, people are not aware of what prospects they have personally and their country. This is what these paradoxical responses from members of society signal“, says Oleg Sahakyan – political scientist and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion, quoted by DW.
Sahakyan argues that the great desire for peace negotiations demonstrates that previous efforts to mobilize the population and achieve unity have exhausted themselves because they were tied to a short war.
„But we have reached the point where the war is long and neither the authorities nor the elite have offered the people a vision of how they should live in Ukraine in conditions of permanent war or the threat of war“, emphasizes Sahakyan.
He emphasizes that Ukrainians have begun to worry about everything that was postponed “for after the war“, such as the fight against corruption and shurabadzhanashtina, as well as for the administration to become more effective.
The political scientist explains that people are aware that the war will last a long time. “Mobilization, abuse of power, energy and economic issues, strengthening the front and defense - all of this is extremely important for society, because the war continues, and these problems remain unresolved. And at the same time, society wants victory, but it is not clear how it can be achieved.
Igor Reiterovich from the Taras Shevchenko National University in Kiev, in an interview with DW, draws attention to the fact that for several months now, President Zelensky has stopped mentioning the 1991 borders as a precondition for peace with Russia. But he has not started mentioning new borders, which is confusing for the Ukrainian public.
The result is that on the one hand, the majority wants all the territories back, and on the other - half say that conscientious objection is not a problem. The answers are contradictory, so we need to think about a solution that Ukrainian society can accept and live with, Reuterovich believes.
He and other experts are of the opinion that the maximum number of people should be involved in the decision-making process.
Mykhailo Mishchenko of the “Think Tank“ warns that public sentiment must be closely monitored and dynamics taken into account, so “we can carefully prepare for the challenges“.
A May survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), cited this month by Reuters, found that 32% of Ukrainians are willing to accept some form of territorial concessions. But this does not mean that they accept that these territories belong to Russia.
“Some people are ready to postpone the liberation of certain territories for better times in the future“, the institute said in a comment on the results. And the director of the KMIS Anton Khrushetsky emphasized in the author's notes to the survey that Ukrainians remain against the idea of reaching a peace agreement with Russia “at any cost“.
Today, however, in an interview with the Associated Press, Mykhailo Podoliak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that “the aggressor country did not come to the territory of Ukraine to sign a peace agreement“. “Yes, there may be a freeze in the conflict for some time. But that means Russia will work on its mistakes and modernize its military," Podoliak believes.
The Ukrainian presidential adviser insists that an agreement now will only postpone greater violence. "If you sign something with Russia today that will not lose the war and will not be legally responsible for mass crimes, it means that you have signed a ticket to continue the war on a different scale, with different protagonists, with a different number of people killed and tortured," Podoliak told the AP.
“If you feel like signing a deal with the devil, who will then drag you to hell, then go for it. Russia is like that“, Podoliak pointed out, when asked about the possibility of Kiev concluding a peace agreement.