The Russian authorities and their propaganda constantly suggest that Russia is at war with the so-called “collective West“. But Kaupo Rozin, the head of Estonian foreign intelligence, believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin doubts Moscow's readiness for a direct confrontation with NATO at the present moment. "I think he respects NATO, but will that remain the case in the coming years?" Rosin asked rhetorically in an interview with Tim Sebastian on the DW show "Conflict Zone."
Under what conditions could Russia start a war with the West?
At the same time, the head of Estonian intelligence believes that Russia could unleash a global armed conflict if Vladimir Putin realized that "he could get away with it." As stated in an intelligence report from February 2024, Moscow is preparing for a military confrontation with the West, and this could happen in the next ten years.
This is a far more optimistic assessment than that of many other European military and political figures. For example, in July, General Roland Walker, the head of the British army, said that NATO has only three to five years to prepare for war with the countries of the so-called "Axis of Turbulence" - Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.
Rozin believes that a number of factors should be taken into account in order to determine the beginning of a possible potential conflict with Russia. "The first big question is how will the conflict in Ukraine end? And the future path of Russia, which is the aggressor, depend on this. If the Ukrainian-Russian war ends with a victory for Russia, then it will act from the position of this new situation and will feel significantly more confident," the head of Estonian intelligence is convinced. Therefore, Rozin believes, the West should be interested in Russia emerging from the war against Ukraine as a weakened power, facing serious internal problems that the authorities will be forced to solve. "I don't think Putin will survive a Russian defeat," Rozin emphasizes.
The second determining factor is how long it will take the Russians to rebuild or create a new army. "We must bear in mind that today the Russian armed forces are several hundred thousand more soldiers strong than before the large-scale invasion," Rozin reminds, adding that Moscow is also expanding the production of ammunition and modern weapons, some of which have not yet been used in the war in Ukraine. However, according to him, in the next few years Russia will not be able to compensate for the current level of losses of manpower and equipment.
Invisible war against Europe
Rozin confirms that Moscow has long been organizing sabotage not only in Estonia, but also in other European countries. "This is a tool that Russia believes it can use against the West to destabilize it, to bring tension into our societies," the Estonian intelligence chief said. "Last year, more than 15 people were arrested in Estonia in connection with Russian subversive activities," Rozin said. "Such actions by Russia are aimed at creating tension in Estonia and undermining support for Ukraine." This is done in order to pay more attention to internal problems and less to support the Ukrainians,“ he emphasizes.
At the same time, Russia hopes that its sabotage actions will not be perceived by NATO as a reason to trigger Article Five of the Alliance Treaty, according to which an attack on one NATO member is an attack on the entire defense alliance and requires a joint response from all member states.
Russia is trying to sow fear
The head of Estonian foreign intelligence supports the position of the country's President Alar Karis, who sharply criticizes NATO countries for not allowing Ukraine to use the weapons it has supplied to strike deep into Russian territory - as they claim - due to fears that this could escalate the conflict. Rozin believes that such a position is pure self-deception, betraying indecision and fear, and this works entirely for Russia.
In this war, Moscow is trying to impose several paradigms on the population of Western countries, including Western politicians - with varying success. “The first of them is that the conflict should develop only on the territory of the victim, and the aggressor for some reason cannot be affected“, points out Rozin, adding that this is the first such case in military history. The second suggestion that the Russians are trying to communicate - openly or secretly - is that Russia cannot lose. “This is wrong: Russia has lost several wars in its history“, reminds Rozin in this regard.
The head of Estonian foreign intelligence also believes that Russian politicians and propagandists are deliberately trying to sow fear and indecision in NATO countries. At the same time, “the obvious weakness of the West is an invitation to further escalation on the part of the Russian side“, assures Rozin. In his understanding, the task of the countries on the eastern flank of NATO is to continue to explain this to their Western allies.
Help for Ukraine with all types of weapons and ammunition
Kaupo Rozin does not agree with the opinion of some Western politicians who express a desire to quickly achieve a diplomatic solution to the military conflict and a compromise with Russia, believing that a review of relations with Moscow is possible or even inevitable. “I am convinced that the current Russian regime must be defeated strategically. Because even if Putin partially achieves his goals, we believe that he will continue. So the war in Ukraine will not end in the medium term, even if at some point it comes to a frozen conflict or something like that“, believes the head of Estonian intelligence.
Ukraine can win
According to him, in the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine, the country with more will and resources will ultimately win. “It is obvious that Ukraine needs additional weapons, additional ammunition. So we should not refrain from supporting Ukraine with all the weapons or ammunition that it needs“, says Rozin.
“If we talk about a long-term resolution of the conflict, I see no other option than to make sure that the Ukrainians win in the end. And I think that this is actually feasible“, emphasizes the head of Estonian intelligence.
Author: Tim Sebastian