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FT: Ukraine-Russia Secret Talks, Putin Will Keep Occupied Territories

Officials from Kiev admit Ukraine cannot take back territories occupied by Russia. A scenario in which the rest of Ukraine is accepted into NATO and integrated into the EU is being considered. But even that is questionable.

Oct 8, 2024 08:49 749

FT: Ukraine-Russia Secret Talks, Putin Will Keep Occupied Territories  - 1

Kiev is secretly talking about a potential deal with Russia to end the war, the Financial Times reported. Ukraine's military goals are changing due to declining Western support.

According to the newspaper, the scenario of Kiev and Moscow starting negotiations seems increasingly likely. Officials from Ukraine say their country lacks the military personnel, firepower and Western support to return all occupied territories – which goal was set by Volodymyr Zelensky.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine will not be able to regain the territories currently occupied by the Russian army, representing nearly 1/5 of the country, including Crimea. Even some Western capitals that previously insisted on the need for a military defeat of Russian President Vladimir Putin are changing their position.

Ukraine enters its third winter of war with a mood darker than ever. In the east, her troops are losing ground to the continued advance of Putin's army – albeit at a huge cost to Moscow's forces. In Washington and some Western capitals — and in the corridors of Kyiv — moods are shifting: from a determination that the war can only be ended by pushing the Russian army out of Ukraine, to a grudging acknowledgment that a negotiated settlement may be the best hope. Yet Kiev is not getting the support it needs to achieve even this reduced goal.

Ukraine's outlook is bleak above all because of the danger that Donald Trump will win the US election next month and seek a quick end to the war, as he has promised. Some US and European officials hope that Trump will at least be dissuaded from forcing Kiev into an unfavorable deal with Moscow that would pose serious risks to future European and US security.

Talks are taking place behind closed doors for a deal in which Moscow retains de facto control of the roughly one-fifth of Ukraine it has occupied – although Russia's sovereignty will not be recognized – while the rest of the country is allowed to join NATO or given equivalent security guarantees. Under this umbrella, it can recover and integrate into the EU, similar to West Germany during the Cold War.

However, this scenario is based on unknowns. One is that the US and its allies must be willing to offer NATO membership or the necessary guarantees, when they have been reluctant to provide Kiev so far. The second big question mark has to do with whether the Russian president can be induced to negotiate and accept such a scenario. It was the prevention of Ukraine's accession to NATO that was one of the reasons announced by the Kremlin for starting this war. Moreover, it is doubtful whether Putin will stop the war if he feels that his army can take more territory.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky presented a “plan for victory” in Washington last month, hoping to persuade Kiev's allies to force Moscow to sit at the table from a position of strength. He walked away empty-handed on two key demands: progress toward NATO and US permission for Kiev to use long-range Western missiles to strike Russian territory.

During his remaining three months in office, US President Joe Biden and his European allies must support Ukraine as much as possible. The goal should be to put Kiev in the strongest possible position ahead of a Trump presidency, or to provide a foundation for Kamala Harris to build on if she wins the race for the White House. We still cannot know how the war will end. But it is in the interest of the West to help Ukraine regain supremacy over its enemy, writes the FT.