Crisis in governance: Germany's three coalition parties can't agree on how to deal with the economic crisis and each of them is proposing different measures.
Although the next regular federal elections are not due for another eleven months, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) are already campaigning. Some are already wondering whether the coalition will fall apart. German public broadcaster ARD asks the following questions in this regard: What happens if one of the coalition partners leaves? What happens if the government finds itself in a deadlock and no compromises are possible? The ARD outlines the possible scenarios.
A new government under Scholz
If one of the current coalition partners withdraws from the government, this does not automatically mean new elections. The chancellor could still seek a new majority - then the existing ministers would be released so that a new government could be formed. For example, with an opposition party. However, this scenario seems unlikely with the current composition of the Bundestag. According to opinion polls, Chancellor Scholz's Social Democratic Party is seriously lagging behind the opposition conservatives from the CDU/CSU in voter attitudes. So new elections would be a significantly better option for the CDU/CSU than a joint government in a grand coalition with a Social Democratic chancellor.
Minority government
The current chancellor could also decide to continue working together with the other members of the government. However, he would then no longer have a majority. This would not be the optimal way to govern, but it is still possible. In the state of Thuringia, for example, the entire last parliamentary term was spent in a minority government under the leadership of the left-wing Prime Minister Bodo Ramello. In this case, however, the government would have to seek a majority for every single law - and would have to rely on the support of the opposition.
A new chancellor in the existing Bundestag
The third possible option is a constructive vote of no confidence: individual members of parliament can withdraw their confidence in the incumbent chancellor and nominate another candidate for the post who they believe would be better suited to the position. The new candidate would then have to be put to a vote and would need an absolute majority. However, given the current distribution of seats, it is highly doubtful that this would happen without the votes of the "Alternative for Germany". At least until now, all other parties have ruled out such cooperation.
New elections
In Germany, new elections can only be called by the federal president, and only if parliament no longer has confidence in the chancellor. The key word here is a vote of confidence. The chancellor is put to a vote. If he gets a majority, he continues to govern. If he doesn't, he can propose to the president that new elections be called within 21 days. They must be held within the next 60 days, and the old government must continue to govern until a new one is elected.
Author: Nikolaus Stauder (ARD)