Western countries are quietly preparing for war with Vladimir Putin, expecting a possible attack from Russia within a few years, writes Newsweek.
Russia is preparing for war with the West, German foreign intelligence recently warned. But this is unlikely to be a large-scale attack on NATO territory. Moscow could choose a limited incursion or step up its hybrid warfare tactics to test the reaction of alliance members.
There are multiple opportunities for Russia to test the alliance's cohesion, including a limited land grab, experts warn.
The urgency is already evident from senior military and political officials. Andrews Kubilius, the European Union's defense commissioner, said in September that defense ministers and NATO commanders “agreed that (Russian President) Vladimir Putin could be ready for a confrontation with NATO and the EU in six to eight years” .
Estonia's foreign intelligence service warned in February that NATO “could face a massive Soviet-style army within the next decade” if Russia successfully reforms its military.
„If we take these assessments seriously, this is the time to prepare properly and it is short,” Kubilius told the “Reuters” agency. “This means we have to make quick and ambitious decisions,” he pointed out. The main catalyst was Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which prompted Sweden and Finland to abandon their long-standing policy of non-alignment and join NATO.
Officials and experts generally expect the new administration of President-elect Donald Trump to redouble pressure on Europe to further increase military spending. Businesses “must be prepared for a war scenario and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly”, call military experts like Rob Bauer.
Germany has begun drawing up plans for how Berlin will protect important buildings and facilities in the event of an attack and how Germany will be a conduit for hundreds of thousands of troops heading east, writes FAZ.
The three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia signed an agreement in January this year to strengthen protection along their land borders with Russia and Belarus. Vilnius said it had laid mines and other defenses against tanks and armored vehicles.
Poland, meanwhile, has begun building what it calls its “Eastern Shield”, costing more than $2.5 billion and described by Warsaw as “the largest operation to strengthen Poland's eastern border, NATO's eastern flank from 1945"
Poland's investments are a combination of building both defensive and offensive capabilities designed to deter Russia by convincing it that any attack will fail to achieve its objectives and come at a very high cost.
The training is not only military, but also civil. In mid-November, NATO's newest member, Sweden, published a brochure it said was helping the country's residents “learn how to prepare and act in the event of a crisis or war”. Finland has publicly available guides on how to prepare for the “worst possible threat, war”. Norway also published a brochure on how to deal with “extreme weather conditions, pandemics, accidents, sabotage – and in the worst case military action“.
Europe has a chronic air defense shortage, although military and political officials did not provide details. In January, the Baltic states also stressed the need to build up NATO air defenses on the eastern flank.
While Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden, as well as Romania, which borders western Ukraine, have significantly increased defense investment, western Europe has lagged behind. It is no coincidence that the biggest increases in defense spending in NATO have come from those closest to Russia. Alliance members are looking to improve NATO's integrated air and missile defense capabilities, drawing lessons from Russia's strikes against Ukraine.