As the newly elected US President Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration on January 20, Kiev and Moscow are trying to gain better positions before the likely negotiations. Business Insider predicts four options for the further development of events in the war in Ukraine after Trump's return to the White House, quoted by Focus.
Agreement on a ceasefire and frozen front lines
The possibility of a temporary cessation of hostilities has returned to the agenda after Trump's re-election. According to Chatham House Fellow for Russia and the Eurasia Program John Lowe, Ukraine seems to be moving away from its "maximalist position" to return all occupied territories, with Kiev demanding "solid security guarantees from the West".
Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea by force in 2014 and then launched a full-scale invasion in 2022. Putin has repeatedly called Ukraine's independence fictitious, and many observers worry that a multi-year pause would allow Russia to train more troops and amass more weapons before attacking again, the report says.
Mark Keynesian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes any peace deal brokered by Trump is likely to include some form of territorial concession:
"It's hard to imagine that this is sustainable. It is easy to imagine another war in a few years."
A long war
Another scenario is that Russia could refuse to compromise and the fighting could continue. Military experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have repeatedly said that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are unlikely to be ready for serious negotiations now.
At the same time, a long war could drain Russia’s military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at a rate that could become unbearable for it, and it will likely need another round of mobilization to make up for the troop losses.
A victory for Russia
Putin wanted a quick military victory when his troops launched a full-scale invasion. Nearly three years later, that goal has eroded, but Moscow can still claim victory, which would likely mean occupying most of Ukraine and overthrowing Zelensky’s government.
According to Keynesian, the worst-case scenario for Kiev would be for the front lines of its armed forces to collapse due to a lack of resources or a shift in international support. In that case, Ukraine would likely be forced to cede large swaths of its territory, with "everything east of the Dnieper" potentially coming under Russian control, either through annexation or effective control.
Ukrainian victory and Russian retreat
The Ukrainians had hopes of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast in 2022, says Ukrainian journalist Svetlana Morenets. She said that while Putin's grip on power appears strong, the war has exposed some of the biggest cracks since his rise to power, such as the armed uprising by Wagner PMC mercenaries and protests against mobilization.
"But given Trump's goal of achieving a quick end to hostilities, Russia's ongoing offensive in the east, and Kiev's state of dwindling resources and collapsing morale, a clear victory for Ukraine seems impossible for now."