Politico: Donald Trump Has Given All the Cards to Vladimir Putin

"In his quest to broker a historic peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, President Donald Trump has cast himself as an agnostic arbiter focused solely on ending the three-year war," Politico writes.

But his different approaches to the sides - quick pressure on the more vulnerable ally Ukraine, more patience and gentle bargaining for the aggressor in Moscow - reflect his own perception of a sharp imbalance of power. Ukraine, as he memorably told President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last month, "has no cards".

It is true that Ukraine, which depends on defense aid from Washington and Europe, is in a weaker position if this war of attrition drags on for years. But Trump has done a few things to weaken Zelensky’s hand.

The United States is holding talks with officials from both sides in Saudi Arabia this week, hoping to make further progress toward a broader ceasefire. Here are some of the bargaining chips Trump has handed over that could be used to pressure Russia.

Making repeated phone calls with Putin after Biden ended them

Trump did little to hide his desire for rapprochement with Russia, reconnecting with Putin in a 90-minute phone call shortly after taking office. This ended three years of isolation by the US under President Joe Biden, who broke off dialogue with Putin after his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Another conversation on Tuesday, which appeared to be longer than the first, took place after Putin refused to accept the terms of a 30-day ceasefire that the US and Ukraine had already agreed to.

Had Trump held out with Putin longer, he would have had more leverage with the Kremlin to push for further concessions related to the war.

Holding talks with Russia without Ukraine's participation

The talks between Trump and Putin were just the beginning. In mid-February, senior US and Russian officials met face-to-face in Saudi Arabia and outlined a plan to resume bilateral cooperation on several fronts. This included restoring staff to the respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, potential economic cooperation, and even easing sanctions imposed in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

These initiatives could have been put on hold, provided that Russia and Ukraine reached a peace agreement. The fact that they were not pursued, and that neither Ukraine nor its European allies had a seat at the table, made it clear that the new administration no longer aligns or coordinates with traditional allies.

Speaking explicitly about what Ukraine might have to give up

While Trump sidestepped questions about what Russia would have to give up as part of a peace deal, he and his top advisers have made it clear that Ukraine would have to give up some of its sovereign territory currently under Russian control. National Security Adviser Michael Walz called this “realistic” given the battlefield situation after three years of war.

And last week, Trump said that talks had already taken place about which side would control various regions of Ukraine, including the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Last week, he even suggested that if Ukraine hoped to retain control of the facility, it might consider allowing American interests to run the plant after the war.

Trump’s determination to demand a price from Ukraine was presented publicly as a means to ensure that America would recoup the $120 billion in defense aid it has provided since the war began. Despite concerns that the president was trying to blackmail Ukraine, Zelensky expressed a willingness to sign the minerals deal as a sign of commitment to the peace process and Trump’s broader diplomacy. Russia, however, has not had to do the same.

Putting maximum pressure on Ukraine only

In addition to lashing out at Zelensky in the Oval Office after he publicly questioned Russia’s seriousness about ending the war, Trump has shown a consistent willingness to apply leverage to pressure Ukraine’s military leader. After the White House outburst, he temporarily suspended all U.S. defense assistance and halted intelligence sharing—moves that were reversed after Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal.

He also repeated Putin's call for new elections in Ukraine, which cannot hold elections while under martial law, and at one point even called Zelensky, who was democratically elected, a "dictator."

Excluding security guarantees for Ukraine and long-term NATO membership

Trump refused to consider offering American hard power to guarantee Ukraine's security after a possible ceasefire, leaving Europe scrambling to increase defense spending and production. He went as far as offering an economic deal — giving the United States a major share of Ukraine’s future profits from rare earth minerals — as a de facto security guarantee, suggesting that Putin could be deterred from further attacks by the presence of Americans.

“Trump is not demanding the same level of immediate and full consent from Putin that he demanded from Zelensky,” said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland and now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

In social media posts, Trump threatened Putin that he might tighten economic sanctions on Russia, then quickly retreated to a position suggesting that Ukraine was more of an obstacle to peace talks. Last week, after the Russian leader refused to agree to a full 30-day ceasefire that the U.S. and Ukraine had signed an agreement for, Trump chose not to criticize his delay and instead praised his willingness to stop attacks on energy infrastructure as a positive step.

Ending efforts to hold Russia accountable

Following Trump’s phone call with Putin last Tuesday, the U.S. withdrew from a multinational group designed to investigate leaders responsible for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Putin. The administration also cut funding to the Yale University Humanities Research Laboratory, which had detailed the mass deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Amid questions from lawmakers, including some Republicans, the administration said it was reviewing the action. But the latest moves coincide with a decision by several national security agencies to halt coordinated efforts to counter Russian cyberattacks and disinformation.

Trump scoffs at suggestions that he should stick to the moral red line that for three years before he took office held the United States and other democratic allies together in opposing Russia’s brazen invasion. The idea is that you can’t be effective as an impartial arbiter if you’re biased toward one side.

Accepting Putin’s view of what he calls the "root causes" of the war - that Russia had to invade because of Ukraine's desire to join NATO - the administration legitimizes the Kremlin's position that the independence of a number of former Soviet socialist republics remains an unresolved issue.

“In my 68 years on this earth, I have never seen a situation where there weren't two sides to the story,“ said Steve Witkoff, Trump's top negotiator with Russia, in an interview over the weekend. “It's just never as black and white as people want to make it out to be. So there are complaints on both sides.“

Trump and his team are putting off addressing the fundamental impasse at the heart of the conflict - Putin's deep-seated belief that Ukraine should not be independent, said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

"You won't get a deal if Ukraine doesn't agree,“ Daalder added. “Trump's big weakness is that he thinks he and Putin can dictate the deal. If he won't provide Ukraine with weapons or security guarantees, he's giving up his influence over Zelensky, who might reject a unilateral peace deal and decide to continue fighting with European support.“