The peace talks that were supposed to take place in London on April 23 with the participation of the US, Great Britain, Germany, France and Ukraine, have effectively collapsed - only technical consultations were held. But the participants in them expressed their support for “Donald Trump's peace efforts”.
It is still too early to talk about a complete failure of the negotiations, but the lack of progress raises the question of whether Ukraine will be able to continue to defend itself without US help? Trump and senior officials in his administration have repeatedly threatened to cut off all US aid to Ukraine if peace is not achieved soon.
The US and Europe have almost reached parity in the volume of military aid
The US has already stopped providing new aid to Ukraine - only shipments approved under Joe Biden remain. In January, before vacating the White House for Trump, he agreed to the supply of $500 million in weapons, including air defense equipment, surface-to-air missiles and equipment for F-16 fighters. The provision of this package was announced on January 9. Such a long pause in US aid to Ukraine (over three months) occurred only in early 2024 - due to disputes in the US Congress at the time.
Throughout all these months, European allies continued to support Ukraine. According to the latest data from the Ukraine Support Tracker project of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, in January and February the UK allocated 360 million euros, Germany - 450 million, Norway - 610 million, Denmark - 690 million, and the largest contribution was from Sweden with 1.1 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. In addition, the European Commission (EC) has provided Ukraine with the first tranche of a new loan of three billion euros.
This brings the total amount of aid provided by Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine to 138 billion euros - 23 billion euros more than the United States has allocated. In terms of military support, the US retains its leadership, but the difference is minimal: since February 2022, Washington has sent Ukraine about 65 billion euros in military aid - one billion more than European countries.
How much does support for Ukraine cost
The last large US aid package of 61 billion dollars, agreed a year ago, will be exhausted by the middle of the year - that is, very soon, British and Ukrainian experts have calculated.
“The suspension of US aid increases the pressure on European governments - both more financial and more military support are required from them,” says Taro Nishikawa, a collaborator on the Ukraine Support Tracker project.
But is Europe able to allocate more funds? Experts from the Kiel Institute suggest that this is realistic. In a recently published report, they found that since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has received an average of 82 billion euros per year from the United States and Europe. To maintain this level of support without the participation of the United States, EU countries, as well as the United Kingdom and Norway, would have to allocate amounts equal to 0.2 percent of GDP, experts calculated.
Who in Europe will have to increase their defense spending?
Some of Ukraine's European allies - Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the Baltic states - will not have to increase spending: according to data from the Ukraine Support Tracker, they already spend more than 0.2 percent of their GDP on aid to Ukraine. But major European economies are planning much less for this purpose. For Germany, this indicator is 0.13 percent of GDP, for France - 0.05 percent, for Italy - 0.04 percent, and for Spain - only 0.03 percent. Britain has been sending about 0.16 percent of its GDP to Ukraine annually.
To reach the target level of support for Ukraine, Germany would have to increase its annual spending from six to nine billion euros, France from 1.5 to six billion, Italy from 800 million to 4.5 billion, Spain from 500 million to three billion euros per year, and the UK from 5 to 6.5 billion euros. In addition, the European institutions would have to allocate an additional about 20 billion euros annually.
“If the five largest European countries did almost as much as the countries of Northern Europe and the Baltics, Europe could largely compensate for the possible shortfall in US aid - especially in the financial sphere,” says Christoph Trebesch, project manager of the Ukraine Support Tracker.
Author: Oleg Loginov