Few places in the world are as militarized and at the same time as unstable as Kashmir. The disputed Himalayan region is located in a very sensitive place - between three nuclear powers: India, Pakistan and China and has long been the subject of tension between them.
This week it became clear how big the problem in Kashmir is. On Tuesday, a group of gunmen attacked tourists in the Indian-controlled part of the region and killed at least 26 people. India declared the attack a terrorist act.
Why Kashmir matters
Kashmir covers about 220,000 square kilometers and is divided between India, Pakistan and China. Both Pakistan and India have claims to the region. More than 12 million people live there, exposed to a dangerous mix of strategic, economic and religious interests.
The history of the conflict in Kashmir dates back to 1947, when the former colony of British India was divided into two countries - Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan. At that time, the so-called princely state (a type of state, ed.) within British India Jammu and Kashmir, populated mainly by Muslims, was ruled by a Hindu maharaja. Initially, he refused to join either of the two newly created states. This changed when Pakistani guerrillas tried to conquer the region and overthrow him. The maharaja sought India's help and sided with New Delhi. This led to the First Indo-Pakistani War and the de facto partition of Kashmir, which still exists today.
Pakistan's claims to Kashmir are based on the argument that the region is predominantly Muslim and should have become part of Pakistan when the country declared independence. India, on the other hand, insists that the most important prerequisite for Kashmir being under the guardianship of New Delhi is the decision of the Maharaja in 1947. These contradictions have caused several wars and rebellions, as well as many years of diplomatic tension between India and Pakistan.
Of strategic importance to China too
China also holds a strategic piece of the puzzle. The northeastern part of the region, known as Aksai Chin, is administered by China, although India continues to consider it its territory. The area is important to Beijing as a land link between Tibet and the western region of Xinjiang.
China took control of Aksai Chin when it built a road between Xinjiang and Tibet in the 1950s. India protested the Chinese presence in the region, and tensions erupted in the 1962 Indo-China War. China has controlled Aksai Chin since then and has significantly expanded its military presence along the border in recent years, leading to repeated clashes with Indian forces.
The area is not only strategically important to China, but also economically. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a key part of Beijing's "Belt and Road" initiative, runs through Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Therefore, it is important for China to maintain stability in the region.
The number of troops is as high as on the Korean Peninsula
It is believed that India has deployed over 750,000 soldiers in Jammu and Kashmir, most of them in the Muslim part of the region. About 150,000 soldiers are in the Pakistani-controlled sectors of the area, including special forces such as the so-called Mujahideen detachment.
The parties to the conflict accuse each other of deploying too many soldiers in the region, but neither officially reports exactly how many there are. According to analysts, the density of the military in the region, especially in relation to the number of civilians, rivals that of the Korean Peninsula.
The presence of rebel groups further complicates the situation. The armed insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir began in the late 1980s and has been fueled by a combination of local resentment and external support. Since then, Islamist groups such as Hizbul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have repeatedly carried out attacks in the region. India accuses Pakistan of supporting the militant groups, a charge Islamabad denies.
Could the current attack trigger a new crisis?
In response to the latest attack, India has taken a series of diplomatic measures against Pakistan, including downgrading diplomatic relations, closing land and air borders and, for the first time in history, suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the sharing of the waters. Pakistan condemned the move and warned that any interference with the treaty would be considered an act of war.
Speculation of a possible military response has been mounting, bringing back memories of the tensions of 2019, when 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers were killed in a suicide attack in Pulwama. India responded with air strikes on Pakistan, bringing the two nuclear powers to the brink of war. That same year, India revoked Article 370 of its constitution, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomous status. The move, which was condemned by Pakistan, sparked major unrest. Tensions have remained high since then. In this volatile region, where several conflicts have already erupted, the risks of another nuclear showdown are dangerously real.
Author: Monir Ghaedi