Ordinary people in Karachi, Pakistan's largest and most populous city, were alarmed by news that gunmen had opened fire and killed more than 26 tourists in the town of Pahalgam, which is located in Indian-administered Kashmir.
In the past, Islamist groups have repeatedly carried out deadly attacks in the disputed region, which have often escalated into gunfights between Indian and Pakistani troops. This time New Delhi seems firmly convinced that it must teach a lesson to Islamabad, accused of supporting separatists in Kashmir.
Does nuclear capability deter India and Pakistan?
Despite the serious tensions between the two nuclear powers, few in Pakistan believe that it could escalate to a full-scale war with India.
"I think a full-scale war between India and Pakistan is not possible", Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Security Studies and Research, told DW. "The nuclear capability of both countries serves as a major deterrent to a full-scale confrontation," he is convinced.
That may have been true until now, but there is currently an escalation. After the Pahalgam attack, New Delhi took a series of tough measures against Pakistan, severing almost all diplomatic ties, closing land and air borders, and suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the sharing of water from the river and its tributaries.
In response, Islamabad also downgraded its diplomatic relations with New Delhi and suspended bilateral trade. What else can be expected?
"The probability of a military operation is high"
In 2019, a suicide attack in Pulwama, also in Kashmir, killed 40 Indian paramilitary fighters. India responded with air strikes on Pakistan, bringing the two countries to the brink of war, but the crisis was nevertheless frozen.
Could India carry out such strikes again? Pravin Dhonti, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told DW that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government are under enormous pressure to respond with a military strike: "The usual hostile rhetoric from the government and the ruling party (Bharatiya Janata Party – ed.) towards Pakistan has shaped these public expectations. This government will likely feel compelled to conduct a military operation that needs to appear more significant than the air strikes in 2019 to reassure its supporters," he believes.
Dhonti also argues that diplomatic moves "do not have the same calming effect on the public psyche as military ones". In this regard, the observer warns that "the probability of a military operation is high".
Maliha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, believes that Islamabad will also respond to such a move with military force: "The consequences of this will be unpredictable, it is possible that it will lead to a full-scale crisis. The idea of a limited war waged under nuclear restrictions, as speculated in India, carries enormous risks. Such a scenario must be avoided at all costs due to the danger of an uncontrollable spiral of escalation," she stressed.
According to former Indian general Syed Atta Hasnain, India's response "should not be time-bound". Moreover, India should undertake it only if success is guaranteed, he believes. The former military officer is adamant that the Indian public can trust the country's political and military leadership.
"India will try to isolate Pakistan"
Diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan will remain frozen, and the tense situation, which could escalate into war, is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, Gul believes. The expert adds that India will continue to put pressure on Pakistan, also using its international influence.
"India will try to isolate Pakistan. Unilateral withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty is a big threat to the country," he says. The expert adds that the suspension of trade and visas, as well as the isolation of Islamabad internationally, "are the strongest tools that India has".
Gul defines the corresponding options available to Pakistan as much more limited. Pakistan is currently struggling with a severe economic crisis, with soaring inflation taking a heavy toll on its citizens. In addition, extremist groups active in the western province of Balochistan and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa pose a major security challenge to the country.
On the political front, one of the country's most popular politicians, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, remains in prison, and his supporters are at odds with the military. The ongoing conflict with India over Kashmir could further destabilize the country.
Whose side will the US and China take?
The United Nations has called on India and Pakistan to exercise "maximum restraint" so that the issues can be "peacefully resolved through constructive mutual engagement".
China's foreign ministry has also called on regional rivals to exercise restraint and resolve their differences through dialogue. Iran has already offered to mediate, and Saudi Arabia has said it is working to "prevent further escalation."
Although US President Donald Trump initially condemned the Pahalgam attack, in his latest comments on the issue he refrained from taking sides: "There's been tension on the border (of Kashmir) for 1,500 years. It's the same, but I'm sure they'll get it together one way or another. I know both leaders (of India and Pakistan)," Trump told reporters.
According to an article in "Newsweek" magazine, the US must navigate the complex diplomatic landscape following the Kashmir attack. "Washington's support for India and efforts to maintain relations with Pakistan amid its growing ties with China are crucial to ensuring regional stability and avoiding a larger conflict," the publication points out.
And it continues: "Washington is likely to insist on diplomatic solutions aimed at de-escalating the crisis and preventing further violence. The outcome of the situation will affect not only South Asia, but could also change global security, especially in view of China's growing influence in the region."
Author: Shamil Shams