Following the end of the 35-year conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has killed more than 40,000 people and displaced more than 1 million, the countries of the region are looking for ways to establish a lasting peace that would create conditions for mutually beneficial cooperation and development. Although a peace treaty has not been signed, the de facto peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been preserved and even strengthened.
Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed on a draft peace treaty, but signals from both sides indicate that there is unlikely to be any tangible progress towards its signing anytime soon. Azerbaijan cannot sign a peace treaty with Armenia until the territorial claims to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan are removed from Armenia's constitution. Since it is unclear when Armenia will be able to hold such a constitutional referendum or, more importantly, whether the Armenian public will support the removal of references to the Karabakh region, achieving lasting peace in the near future seems complicated and uncertain. While the Armenian government has demonstrated some understanding of the importance of removing territorial claims, the Armenian political and expert community must be sufficiently committed to convincing the public of the necessity of this change for lasting peace and regional security.
A similar impasse is observed regarding another key issue that Azerbaijan wants resolved: the formal dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the United States, France, and Russia, which has mediated between Azerbaijan and Armenia for 30 years and has not played a positive role in achieving peace, and has instead allowed each co-chair to pursue its own interests. Armenia is not sure whether it should address this issue before signing a peace treaty. Recently, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan noted that a consensus among OSCE members is needed to dissolve the Minsk Group. In Azerbaijan, this is seen as a political maneuver by Armenia, which supports the preservation of the Minsk Group as a potential mechanism for reviewing the Karabakh issue in the future. Baku, for its part, seeks to remove any legal or political ambiguity that could be used to reignite the conflict.
This interim period could contribute to reconciliation between the two nations and prepare their populations for long-term peace. Given that the Armenian public is expected to vote on key peace-related reforms, the importance of this period cannot be overstated. In the meantime, several political initiatives could be undertaken. First, it is essential to strengthen bilateral interactions at many levels. The lack of such engagement during the years of conflict has significantly damaged public perceptions on both sides, especially among ordinary citizens. Now that the conflict has largely been resolved and de facto peace has been achieved, there is an opportunity to initiate projects that bring together representatives of different sectors of society.
Armenia and Azerbaijan should continue these initiatives together, given that very often external actors complicate the process, there are many relevant examples from which Baku and Yerevan can benefit. One particular example is France and Germany, which, 80 years after the end of World War II, continue to invest in cross-border programs aimed at preserving peace and promoting regional integration. A serious warning and reminder that Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to engage in such efforts for many years to come. Recent success in bilateral negotiations, in particular the agreement on the definition and demarcation process, signed and approved by both sides in 2024, shows that there is great potential for peacebuilding projects to continue in other areas and directions.
Despite the uncertain prospects for a formal peace treaty in the near future, the current de facto peace represents a significant opportunity to promote a peace settlement, deepen mutual understanding, and build the foundations for sustainable development. Concrete initiatives between the two nations to build confidence-building measures can lay the foundations for future cooperation and stability. If used wisely, this period could serve not only as a pause in hostilities, but also as the beginning of a lasting transformation in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The road to lasting peace may be long, but significant progress can begin now.