After 41 years of armed conflict with the Turkish state, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) announced on May 12, 2025, that it was disbanding. Government and opposition representatives welcomed the decision and a possible end to the bloodshed. Tens of thousands of civilians and PKK fighters have lost their lives in recent decades.
The news caused euphoria in Turkey, but also raised many questions. However, according to political scientists, the PKK's self-dissolution could fundamentally change the political balance of power in Turkey.
How will Turkish politics change?
Seren Selvin Korkmaz, director of the IstanPol Public Opinion Research Institute, describes the PKK's decision as a potential turning point in Turkish politics. "The political equations we talked about a year ago are completely different today. Parties have to adapt their programs and discourses," says Korkmaz. In particular, for the pro-Kurdish Equality and Democracy Party (known until 2023 as the Green Left Party), the political field of action could expand.
According to Korkmaz, two factors will have a decisive influence on Turkish politics over the next three years: the possible course of the peace process with the PKK and the legal situation surrounding Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. The democratically elected İmamoğlu was arrested in March 2025, while the peace process with the PKK was underway. Korkmaz also points out that İmamoğlu's Republican People's Party has meanwhile been designated by the government as the "new enemy" - instead of the Kurdish political movement, as was the case in previous years.
Today, not only İmamoğlu is in prison, but also many Kurdish politicians, including prominent politician Selahattin Demirtaş. The Kurdish movement is now awaiting the release of its politicians, but their fate remains unclear. "Above all, discussing the Kurdish issue within the framework of the constitution will now require some easing or democratization," says Turkish political scientist Mesut Yegen. "The constitution essentially needs to be reorganized in such a way as to create a more democratic model of Turkey. At the same time, however, there is a government that is not ready to change the presidential system with its authoritarian tendencies."
What will happen to the weapons?
It is also unclear to whom, when and how the PKK will hand over its weapons. There is also no information whether this will be done under international supervision, whether there will be complete disarmament or only symbolic gestures.
According to media reports based on unofficial sources, a decision on these issues could be made in the summer. Apparently, the government is already working on a roadmap. However, there is resistance to self-disbandment within the PKK. Some leading members had to be convinced first. There is also discussion about whether new organizations could emerge.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made it clear that simply handing over the weapons would not be enough. "All illegal structures that could use violence must be eliminated," he said. Fidan said he was ready for various alternative scenarios.
What will happen to the PKK fighters?
The fate of PKK members is also unclear - both the fighters in the mountains and the activists in the cities. According to estimates, the PKK had a base of about 60,000 people, including fighters, sympathizers and civilian supporters.
The question of whether a general amnesty is possible is the subject of controversial debate. Although possible integration programs are being considered, a general pardon by President Erdogan is considered unlikely - the risk of social tension would be too great.
For those in the PKK leadership, returning to Turkey is out of the question. Some of them could go to third countries, while others could stay in northern Iraq. However, no concrete decisions have been made in this regard yet. Ankara does not want the PKK leaders living in Turkey's neighboring countries - Iraq, Syria or Iran, who number about 300, to remain in these countries.
What does this mean for the Kurds in Syria?
The consequences for Syria and Iraq are being closely watched. The northern part of Syria remains under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, whose core is the People's Protection Units (YPG), an organization that Turkey considers an offshoot of the PKK.
There is also speculation about the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces fighters into the Syrian army. Their foreign fighters should return to their home countries. Although Ankara initially demanded that the YPG also be disarmed, this demand has since been heard less and less.
There are also sceptical voices within Turkey's ruling party. Former lawmaker and Erdogan confidant Samil Tayyar warned that in addition to the handover of weapons and legal provisions, the future fate of former PKK fighters must also be clarified. "This development cannot be assessed in isolation from the structures in Syria. It is more important to eliminate the threat that the YPG poses on our border than to eliminate the obsolete PKK," Tayyar said.
Author: Burak Yunveren