Europe is no closer to peace after the Ukraine talks in Turkey. Anyone who believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will suddenly freeze the conflict at the request of the West is making a fool of himself. Accompanied by diplomatic theater, burdened by internal disputes within the ranks of the West, and overshadowed by new Russian air strikes, Ukrainian-Russian peace talks took place in Istanbul - the first in more than three years. Apart from a promise of a prisoner exchange, they did not produce any tangible results. But they led to a moment of truth, the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" pointed out, BTA reported.
This is an inconvenient truth, suppressed by a part of the Western public, in three aspects, the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" points out.
First, Putin is not interested in peace. Instead of appearing in the Bosphorus city himself, he sent a delegation, the selection of whose members was a sign of contempt, according to former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev. Putin is not even under pressure to agree to a temporary ceasefire. He can be called upon to agree to it. Trump may talk about holding a summit with him. But after three months of failed attempts, the impression is of a dead end. The assumption that the Ukrainians themselves can convince the Russians to agree to a ceasefire seems downright illusory. Putin could not have made his disinterest clearer.
Second, Europe and America have failed on a key issue. The fact that the moment for negotiations will eventually come has always been part of their strategy for Ukraine. But the West wanted to put Ukraine in a strong position first. That has failed, and worse: Europe and America are pushing Ukraine towards negotiations while constantly sending signals of weakness. One example of this is the boldly announced ultimatum to Russia a week ago to agree to a ceasefire or face new punitive measures. After the deadline passed, almost nothing happened. The US wants nothing to do with new sanctions, and the EU, in its disunity, has only managed to agree on a mild package of measures. You can imagine the laughter behind the Kremlin walls, notes the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".
Thirdly, the problem with Trump is not just that the US wants to reduce its role in European security. This would be a legitimate position that Washington has advocated - less vehemently - in the past. The problem is deeper, because Trump is pursuing a frankly anti-European policy with his tariff war and questioning of NATO. The idea of a transatlantic community driven by common interests is in crisis. Trump is signaling that he would prefer to work with Putin over the heads of the Europeans so that they can both defend their respective great power interests. Thus, Trump remains true to Thucydides' motto "The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer as much as they must".
Trump systematically plays into the Russian dictator's hands. At the same time, he has failed to extract a single important concession from Putin. The meeting in Turkey is also the result of this pro-Russian course: Putin has long called for new negotiations to begin on the basis of the Istanbul talks in the spring of 2022. Kiev has always rejected this, since Russia wanted to force a capitulation at that time. The Ukrainians went to Istanbul only under American pressure.
Putin's plans go far beyond the borders of Ukraine
Every war is fought not only in the trenches, but also in the minds of people. Whoever wins the power of interpretation has won an important battle. This has always been a weakness of the West, and not only because of empty ammunition depots. Even after the third anniversary of the great Russian invasion, the mistaken assumption that this is a territorial dispute between two neighboring countries is still widespread.
"We really tried to understand things from both sides' perspectives," said US Vice President J.D. Vance recently, unwittingly admitting that he had simply missed the point. Putin is not waging war just against Ukraine, but against the West as a whole. For him, Ukraine is nothing more than a theater for undermining the security order that emerged in 1991, weakening NATO, and making Moscow once again the dominant factor on the continent.
The Kremlin regime senses the possibility that the great powers of the 21st century will once again behave like predators, with the force of law giving way to the law of the strongest. What are they trying to achieve at the negotiating table? Predators are not talked about the advantages of vegetarianism, but people are arming themselves against them, emphasizes the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung".
Putin's calculations are different
Against this background, the call for a ceasefire is not enough. The assumption that Putin could finally freeze the war on the current front is wishful thinking for the West. From its point of view, this would mean accepting a heavy defeat. He would have missed his most important military goals, and Ukraine would have survived as an independent, pro-Western state, even with an even stronger national identity than in 2022.
That is why only bold optimists can recognize Istanbul as a starting point on the path to peace. Realistically, this war will end only after Ukraine stabilizes the front with the help of the West and Europe restores a reliable military deterrent against Russia. This is a huge task, but not impossible if the necessary political will exists in Europe.
The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine three years after the start of the great war did not lead to a breakthrough in the peace process. The main result of the Istanbul meeting was that the parties agreed to negotiate again, although it is not clear where, when and for what, the BBC noted.
The key to understanding why talks like those in Istanbul will not end with a breakthrough lies in the differences in the parties' expectations from the meeting, the media outlet points out.
The number one topic for the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul was discussing the terms and implementation of a ceasefire regime for a period of at least thirty days. According to Ukrainian officials, if the guns fall silent, this would create a suitable atmosphere for further negotiations for a more sustainable peace.
Russia, its representatives said, insists on discussing the "root causes of the Ukrainian conflict". According to the most common interpretation, these root causes are that Russia perceives Ukraine's desire for independence as "destruction of the unified spiritual space of the former Soviet Union and the Russian Empire", as well as the machinations of the West aimed at inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.
Moscow will agree to any ceasefire only after these root causes are removed.
For now, at least, there is no progress in this direction - on Sunday, Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war, Reuters reported. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow was also preparing to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile.
That the Kremlin has not changed its position is clear from a statement by its spokesman Dmitry Peskov before the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, writes "Frankfurter Rundschau".
"The conversation is important, including with regard to the negotiations in Istanbul", Peskov told TASS. But he emphasized: "As for the negotiations, we (from the Kremlin) have already said everything we could, we have highlighted the main points."
Recently, Trump expressed his understanding that Putin did not go to Istanbul to negotiate directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "Nothing will happen until Putin and I meet," Trump told reporters last week aboard the "Air Falls 1" en route to the United Arab Emirates.
Earlier today, however, Peskov said that a Putin-Trump meeting is not expected for now. Which answers the question of whether there will be a ceasefire in Ukraine.