Donald Trump is completely convinced: Russia will win this war

Russia's offensive in Ukraine has slowed down, and the occupation troops have achieved only minor successes, despite the claims of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which US President Donald Trump also believes. This was reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday, May 21.

Amid fierce resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian troops have made minor territorial gains on the front this year, despite Putin's assurances that his army has gained the upper hand, the article states.

Bloomberg emphasizes that during the negotiations with his American counterpart, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to buy time - and he succeeded, because after the telephone conversation, Trump clearly stated that he was abandoning demands for a ceasefire and threats of sanctions.

According to people familiar with the closed-door talks between Trump and the allies, the American president made it clear that he was confident in Russia's victory, repeating a number of the Kremlin's theses. This has raised concerns among Europeans that the US intends to abandon its widely publicized commitment to a rapid peace agreement.

"Trump has repeatedly criticized Zelensky - most notably in the Oval Office - without exerting significant pressure on Putin, as evidenced by his refusal to threaten additional sanctions if Putin refuses an unconditional ceasefire,“ the article states.

Jack Watling, a senior fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Institute for Defence Studies in London, said the diplomatic retreat was in Putin's favour:

"Russia cannot sustain operations indefinitely, but for now Moscow believes its influence in Ukraine will grow over time. And with Trump strongly hinting that he will withdraw from the talks, the Russian military intends to step up its operations.“

According to Bloomberg, the pace of the Russian Federation’s main offensive in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the year has halved compared to the same period through the end of 2024, according to DeepState data, and the Russian military is far from "fulfilling Putin’s military goals“.

"The unstable diplomatic process means that the future of Ukraine and the broader security of Europe is likely to be determined by events on the battlefield. "With Russian and Ukrainian forces nearing a stalemate, the ability of Kiev and its allies to continue to deliver men and weapons for defense, perhaps without much U.S. support, is likely to be crucial," the article states.

According to Bloomberg, Russian forces are advancing into Ukraine at an average speed of about 41 km/h. km per week, compared with an average of about 125 sq km from mid-August to the end of last year. According to public data, Russia has annexed less than 0.15% of Ukrainian territory since January.

Bloomberg notes that fighting tends to intensify in the summer months. However, at the current pace of the Russian Federation's offensive in the Donetsk region alone, it will take the Russians several years to fully occupy the region, and the occupation of all of Ukraine would theoretically last more than a century, journalists calculated based on DeepState data.

“Putin's idea that he can quickly conquer all four regions - or even in the near future - is completely unrealistic”, emphasized Eric Charamella, a senior fellow in the “Russia and Eurasia” program at the “Carnegie Endowment“.

The article also states that the likelihood of a Russian breakthrough at the front line remains, the defense of Pokrovsk, which has managed to withstand Russia's current military campaign, and Ukraine faces systemic problems with labor shortages, “war fatigue” and weakened U.S. support.

"While European backers - led by France, Germany and Britain - have doubled down on their pledges to support Ukraine, Kiev's most powerful ally is changing course, which could have serious implications for further U.S. arms deliveries after the summer," wrote Bloomberg.

Watling believes Russia intends to step up its operations after Trump hinted that he would withdraw from the talks. However, he said the Russian side also faces a difficult choice.

"While Russia can sustain two more seasons of (military) campaigns with its current approach to recruiting personnel, further offensive operations in 2026 "will likely require further forced mobilization, which is a difficult task both politically and economically," he emphasizes.