The head of German foreign intelligence, Bruno Kahl, believes that Ukraine is only a stage target in Russia's military expansion. The most dangerous thing, according to him, is that there are people in Moscow who are ready to test NATO.
The president of German foreign intelligence, Bruno Kahl, has warned for months that the danger from Russia is growing - he has emphasized for months that Russia's expansionist pressure on the West should not be underestimated, writes ZDF.
In a media podcast, he now points out that Ukraine is only a stage target for the Kremlin - the real one is further west. And some in Moscow are already openly doubting that Article 5 of the NATO Treaty will actually work. The text in question reads: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them shall be considered an attack against them all and that in the event of such an attack each Party shall come to the aid of the Party or Parties attacked". According to Bruno Kahl, the real danger is that "there are people in Moscow who do not believe that Article 5 works and would like to test it".
Such a test does not need to be carried out by open bombing - it is possible for Russian special forces without identification marks to enter the territory of the Baltic states under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. The goal is to force the Alliance to react: escalation or hesitation?
Warnings are not new
As early as October 2024, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service warned of the risk of Russian provocation, ZDF recalls. At the time, he said: "By the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops will be able to carry out an attack on NATO."
And Germany is now considered one of Russia's main enemies, mainly due to the aid it provides to Ukraine. Kahl mentions a “direct confrontation with Russia“, in which it is no longer just about Ukraine, but also about “creating a new world order“.
According to the head of foreign intelligence, the Russian secret services are acting “completely unscrupulous“, and the escalation of the situation is “anything but not improbable“.
False worries or a justified warning?
How reliable are these kinds of predictions and how realistic could an attack on NATO's European territory actually be? ZDF quotes military expert Christian Möhling, who as early as 2023 stated that he saw a great threat of NATO disintegration, achieved after a possible direct attack with weapons. Even then, within the Alliance, Russia was considered the greatest threat to the security of NATO countries. Current estimates indicate that in 2029 Russia may be able to attack NATO.
The authoritative political scientist and military expert Carlo Mazzala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich emphasizes that he “excludes a direct attack“ by Russia against Germany or France. The warning of a possible attack in 2029 is made with a strategic purpose – to awaken people's awareness of the danger and to justify high defense spending.
”Now and in the coming years, an attack on European territory would be too risky for Russia. "I would rather allow for some small-scale, episodic incursions into border regions, perhaps even into unpopulated areas," says Carlo Mazzala, quoted by ZDF.
The German public-law media outlet also quotes military historian Sönke Neitzel, who also warns of a possible Russian attack, but rules out the possibility of a major strike against NATO. According to Neitzel, the threat is real "because Putin's policy is based on expansion and provocation." He notes that the years until NATO achieves its full defense capability are the most dangerous.
Germany is betting on reliable deterrence
The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer, has also issued warnings about Russia on several occasions - he believes that in five to eight years Moscow could reform its army so that it is capable of attacking NATO territory. At the same time, he emphasizes: “I deliberately say all this in the conditional mood. Because it should not happen, but it is possible. That is why we must ensure reliable deterrence so that it does not lead to war“.
ZDF also quotes Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who recently stated that he is not afraid of a Russian attack and added that Finland has experience with Russia - it is part of its history. For the moment, he does not see a Russian attack as a possible scenario, but warns: “The only thing Putin understands is the language of force. Weakness and softness can tempt him to attack“.
Political pressure is growing
Assessments of the threat from Russia vary - some experts name specific data and scenarios for a possible attack, while others warn against exaggerations and politically motivated dramatizations. However, one thing is clear: with each warning, political pressure grows.
Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius are pushing for large-scale military investments. This in turn could force the Kremlin to further strengthen its weapons production, which is already running at high speed. Carlo Mazzala sums up the dilemma as follows: “If we arm ourselves, Moscow will arm itself too. But I see no alternative. We can only deal with this security dilemma by demonstrating our defensive capabilities“.