NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on June 24 during the summit in The Hague that Russia poses the biggest existential threat to the Alliance today, News.bg reports.
According to him, the Kremlin is preparing for a long-term conflict, and support from countries such as North Korea, China, Iran and Belarus is increasing this threat, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Rutte warned that Russia could attack NATO within the next seven years and stressed that Moscow is currently more prepared for war. On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Sky News that Russia could be ready for a military conflict with NATO by 2030. He indicated that the current war in Ukraine limits the Kremlin's actions, but any reduction in Western aid would benefit Russia.
ISW also assesses that the Kremlin continues to prepare society and its armed forces for a possible future conflict with NATO in the medium and long term.
Russian ambitions for a unified army under its control
Russia is increasing its influence on the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by pushing for measures to subordinate allied forces to Russian military command. On June 24, the Russian State Duma ratified a protocol that allows for the deployment of troops between CSTO countries in times of crisis, exercises, armed conflicts, and humanitarian missions.
The new protocol shortens the time for deploying forces to one day after a decision by the CSTO Council and introduces a "formation command" structure that is likely to be dominated by Russia. According to ISW, the Kremlin has long sought to build a multinational army in the post-Soviet space, which should be taken into account in Western assessments of Russian military power.
Tactical innovations: from motorcycles to drones
Russian forces are increasing the use of motorcycles on the front lines in Ukraine — an innovation that could also be applied in future conflicts with NATO. This suggests that the Russian military is adapting its tactics to the lessons of modern warfare.
Investing in Ukrainian defense and joint production of drones
NATO Secretary General stressed the importance of investing in the Alliance's defense capabilities and in the Ukrainian military industry. Rutte called on NATO countries to support Ukraine's defense base, estimated at about $35 billion in unused potential, in order to reduce pressure on their own stocks and open up the possibility of future arms purchases from Ukraine.
During the NATO summit, Ukraine's European partners announced new military and financial assistance. The Netherlands has provided a €175 million package, including 100 drone detection radars, 20 Ermine semi-autonomous casualty evacuation aircraft, and €80 million for the international drone coalition.
Ukraine and the United Kingdom are launching a joint drone manufacturing initiative, with the UK to produce Ukrainian models within three years. After the war, the drones produced will be used by both sides, increasing synergies between their defense industries.
NATO will also provide €37 million for satellite communications to Ukraine – including radios, trackers and related services, according to a joint statement by Ukrainian and NATO officials.
Russian airstrikes and civilian casualties
On the night of June 23-24, Russian forces carried out massive drone strikes against Ukraine, using 97 Shahed drones and decoys launched from various regions – including Kursk, Oryol, Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai and Crimea.
According to Ukrainian sources, the attacks resulted in over 100 civilian casualties. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a Russian strike on a passenger train killed at least 17 people and injured 279. Civilian infrastructure was also hit in Kharkiv and Velikiy Bobryk, Sumy Oblast.