The question is not if, but when! Europe prepares to repel a Russian invasion

While Russia is busy with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many NATO countries expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to one day turn his attention to the alliance's eastern flank and are preparing for that invasion. According to the Financial Times, the Russian economy is already primed for conflict, and Putin's imperialist ambitions indicate that he will seek opportunities for conquest elsewhere.

He notes that Moscow is already taking steps to strengthen its regional presence.

"Satellite images show increased activity at Russian bases near NATO's eastern flank, including the Levashovo, Kamenka and Olenya airfields. New storage buildings have appeared in Petrozavodsk, about 175 km from the Finnish border, and at the former Severomorsk-1 air base, about 120 km east of Norway, the terrain has been cleared and new asphalt has been laid for aircraft," the publication states.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned last month that Moscow could be ready to use force against the alliance "within five years."

Meanwhile, Lieutenant General Kari Nysula, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Finnish Armed Forces, believes that the question is "not if it will happen, but when it will happen." I have to be ready every day.”

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former NATO secretary general, suggests that Putin will gain confidence and an “appetite for even more territory” if he is allowed to succeed in Ukraine:

“He will put pressure on the Baltic states. And when the American president publicly expresses doubts about his commitment to Article 5, that could tempt Putin to test NATO’s resolve.”

Many eastern European NATO countries are rushing to increase their defense spending to fill gaps in their military capabilities under pressure from both Russia and Trump. But many doubt that the additional investment will come quickly enough.

“We all want to deter Russia by projecting strength and increasing our capabilities. But on the other hand, at some point Putin will calculate whether he can win. We need to make sure he doesn't miscalculate," says one of the regional intelligence officers.

However, as the FT notes, military experts say that Moscow's interest in NATO's border states is different from its attitude to Ukraine. Instead of a full-scale invasion, Putin is likely to test whether NATO will or can respond.

"For Russia, the strategic goal would be to break NATO, not to acquire a small piece of land in the Baltics or anywhere else," says Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security Studies in Estonia.

However, according to her, any failure to respond decisively to future aggression from Moscow would mean the end of the Alliance. So much may depend on whether Putin feels emboldened by the results of his war in Ukraine.

“If the US imposes an unfavorable peace on Ukraine, Russia will feel vindicated and the risk to our security will increase,“ she says, adding that it all comes down to one fundamental question: “How does Russia assess NATO's readiness for a collective response?“.