In the coming years, there will be nearly 770,000 unfilled jobs in Germany due to a lack of well-qualified personnel, a new study shows. In which professions is the shortage the greatest and which specialists are most in demand.
Germany lacks educators, social workers, caregivers and sales workers, as well as qualified employees for a number of other professions. According to a study by the Institute for German Economics (IW), which is close to business, this shortage of qualified personnel is likely to worsen significantly in the next two to three years. In 2024, there were 487,000 vacant jobs due to a shortage of specialists, and in 2028 The number of vacancies is expected to reach 768,000, according to data cited by German public broadcaster ARD.
The shortage will become increasingly felt
"The main reason for this is demographic changes. Many people from the largest post-war generations will retire in the next few years," the author of the study, Jurek Tiedemann, told the publication.
"If we do not somehow mitigate this shortage, it will be felt by more and more people in everyday life in the future." If there is a shortage of kindergarten teachers or nursing home caregivers, the remaining workers will be forced to cut back or stay home longer to care for children and elderly relatives, he explains.
Salespeople are in the greatest demand
The authors of the study studied the labor market situation in 1,300 professions. The biggest problem is in trade - due to the lack of enough salespeople. The shortage there could grow from about 12,900 people now to over 40,000 in the coming years. “Too few young people want to train as sales workers“, explains Tiedemann.
In second place among the professions with the greatest shortage of qualified personnel are kindergarten teachers - there are already just over 30,000 unfilled jobs there. This is followed by caregivers and people in medical professions (21,350 unfilled jobs) and social workers and teachers - also with over 21,000 vacancies.
Huge growth in employment in the IT sector
Experts have also analyzed the professions in which the number of employees may increase or decrease the most, according to the ARD publication. The largest influx of personnel is expected in the profession of child educators. By 2028, it is realistic for about 143,000 jobs to be filled with new employees in this sector. However, according to the authors, this will not be enough to cover real demand. There will also be a significant increase of 26% in professions in the field of information technology. This trend is due to the need for digitalization.
The Institute for German Economics expects the biggest decline in metalworking professions: the number of trained skilled workers in this field could decrease by almost 161,000 by 2028. Many workers in the industry are leaving the labor market, and new staff are being recruited too little. A large decline is also expected for bank employees - by about 56,300 people. "Banking is becoming increasingly automated. Branches are closing and there are fewer and fewer customer service counters. As a result, fewer employees will be needed in the future," Tiedemann points out.
The shortage of skilled workers is holding back the economy
IW experts recommend expanding school activities that help students make their career choices, increasing incentives for longer-term employment and making it easier to recruit foreign skilled workers.
Another way out of the dilemma of the shortage of workers is to include more women and people of retirement age in the labor market. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Germany needs to better integrate women and older people into the labor market – through more kindergarten places and fewer incentives for early retirement.
"The shortage of skilled labor threatens to become a major obstacle to economic growth," says an OECD report.
Another idea was put forward by the president of the Federal Employment Agency, Andrea Nahles: she believes that full-time employment should be further stimulated - this factor, according to her, holds significant potential for overcoming the labor shortage.