A new wave of the Russian offensive is expected in Ukraine from August. It is a continuation of the so-called summer campaign, which has been going on since the end of April. Since then, the number of combat clashes on the front, which stretches from Sumy to Kherson regions, has increased significantly. According to the General Staff of Ukraine, in February there were a total of 3,274 battles, and in May - already 5,691. In June and July they decreased slightly - to 5,304 and 5,475, respectively, with the Russian attacks on the Pokrovskoye direction being the most numerous. What did the occupiers manage to achieve during the first phase of the offensive and what can be expected from now on?
Phases of the Russian offensive
In the Russian army, each year is divided into three stages - spring, summer and autumn-winter campaign, military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko explained to DW. According to him, the first phase of the Russian army's summer campaign began in May, and now the second is ending. "The third phase will be from August to September. By then, they want to reach the large cities - Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Seversk, maybe even Kupyansk."
Kovalenko notes that this is necessary so that the fighting during the autumn-winter season - the season of rains and frosts - can be waged in the cities. "During the autumn-winter season, it is not convenient to advance with infantry. If they remain in the fields, the pace of the offensive will significantly decrease. And if they reach the outskirts of the cities by October, urban battles may begin, after which they may again switch to field offensives for the spring campaign of 2026."
Military expert Mykola Beleskov, in turn, says that he sees no point in dividing the summer campaign into phases, given that Russia's attacks are constant. "The Russians are regrouping, bringing in reserves. That is, nothing fundamentally new can be expected. I think the offensive began in May, when the strikes were intensified, and the intensity of the fire increased. And now there is nothing new - regrouping and bringing in reserves. This will continue until the end of September or October."
Russia's territorial gains during the summer offensive
As part of the summer offensive, Russia has increased the pace of occupation of Ukrainian territories. According to the DeepState project, in February, March and April, Russian troops captured 192, 133 and 175 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, respectively. In May, this figure already reached 449 square kilometers, and in June the Russian army occupied 556 square kilometers. Despite the increased area of the conquered territories, the movement of Russian troops remains far from the record indicator of November 2024 - then they advanced by as much as 730 square kilometers.
If we talk about the conquest of specific settlements, the successes of Russian troops since May have been quite modest. For example, the DeepState map shows that the town of Kamenskoye in Zaporizhia Oblast is in Russian hands, but the spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Vladislav Voloshin, denies this. "On the northern and northeastern outskirts of the settlement there are our positions where fighters are located. Clashes are ongoing in several of them."
There are settlements that Russian troops have entered, but have not fully occupied. Mirnograd and Pokrovsk are under semi-siege, and to reach them, the Russian army has captured the settlements of Novoikonomicheskoye, Razino and Fedorovka. Russian units have also made minor progress towards Toretsk and Kupyansk.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Chasov Yar in Donetsk Oblast has been captured, but the Ukrainian army denies this information. DeepState maps confirm that the outskirts of the city remain under Ukrainian control.
Russia is not implementing the occupation plan
Compared to the period May-July 2024, this year Russian troops are moving faster, experts note. "By 100-200 square kilometers more. That is probably why in this offensive campaign we will lose more than last year, when a total of 3,400 square kilometers were occupied. Now we may lose 4,000. But now the same thing is happening as last year - there is no breakthrough, which the Russians would like, but there is no stabilization of the front line," Beleskov noted.
Olexander Kovalenko explains the increase in the area of the occupied territories by the fact that there are fewer settlements on the path of the occupiers. "In 2023, many forces were concentrated in Avdeevka. Then they passed through Ugledar and other settlements, which slowed them down. But then the fields began. Now they have again reached areas where there are fewer settlements," the expert notes.
At the same time, Kovalenko adds, Russian troops cannot advance near the cities. "They are stuck in the Toretsk agglomeration, from which they have not been able to leave for a year. They are stuck in Chasov Yar, in Pokrovsk, which they are trying to besiege. The Russians are not fulfilling the plan with the tasks set. The most striking example is Toretsk, which according to the plan was to be conquered by the end of 2024."
Sumy region is the only place where Russian troops are retreating. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, announced the end of the Russian army's offensive in this direction at the end of June. And recently, Ukrainian units have liberated a number of settlements in the region.
Where the threat is greatest
According to DW's interlocutors, the Donetsk region and Kupyansk are currently most threatened by a Russian offensive. "For us, the biggest challenge remains Pokrovsk. The Pokrovsk direction is key, that's where our biggest problem is", Beleskov believes.
In addition to Pokrovsk, the city of Konstantinovka is also under threat, notes Kovalenko. "In the fall, the Russians will try to reach the outskirts of Konstantinovka. And the first urban battles for Pokrovsk could begin as early as August. If the logistics in Pokrovsk are controlled qualitatively, I see no prospects for capturing the city by the end of the year. However, if the logistics are disrupted, Pokrovsk may not hold out until the end of the year," the expert predicts.
Kovalenko suggests that by the autumn-winter period, Russian troops will try to reach the cities of Dobropole in the Pokrovsk region and Druzhkovka in the Kramatorsk region. "There are a large number of airfields in these directions. Therefore, I think that soon Russia will increase the occupied territories precisely thanks to this. Until they reach rivers or settlements," says Kovalenko. According to him, Russian troops may begin to move towards Novopavlovka in the Dnepropetrovsk region, where there are also airfields - and there are no settlements to slow them down.
Tactical battles in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions
For Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, DW's interlocutors predict tactical battles, the goal of which will be to block the Ukrainian forces there. "Talks about possible Russian actions on the right bank of the Kherson region have been going on for a year now. The Dnieper - a large water barrier - complicates logistics and supplies. Ukrainian forces have the opportunity to cut off their forward units from supplies. Therefore, it will be difficult to carry out an offensive there," Beleskov notes.
The expert adds that the available technologies and tactics make it impossible to advance quickly. "Therefore, this year will probably repeat last year, when we lost part of the territory without breakthroughs, but also without stabilizing the front line. This plays against us politically, because until the front line stabilizes, it will be very difficult to conduct any negotiations with Russia. And yet: although we are losing territory, the enemy is still being exhausted - even if not as quickly as we would like."
According to Beleskov, the main problem of Ukraine at the moment is the shortage of manpower on the front line. "Unfortunately, neither sanctions nor ammunition supplies solve this problem - there must be someone at the front to occupy defensive positions and prevent an offensive. That is why Russia is counting on the shortage of manpower on the front line."
Author: Alexander Kunitsky