Russian head of state Vladimir Putin has deliberately put himself in a position where he cannot present any peace agreement that does not meet his original military goals, such as a victory for the Russian army or people.
This is commented on by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin is also increasing Russian society's dependence on military spending by investing significantly in the Russian military-industrial complex, which currently accounts for a significant portion of total Russian domestic production.
ISW continues to assess that any sharp reduction in Russia's defense spending is likely to depress the Russian economy in the medium term, which will strengthen Putin's motivation to continue the protracted war in Ukraine and provoke future military conflicts, despite the heavy Russian losses of battlefield and critical constraints on the country's economy.
Putin has deliberately cultivated Russian society's commitment to his war aims and has not set conditions for concessions in order to accept a peace agreement that does not meet his original military goals.
A Kremlin source told Reuters that Putin did not believe now was the time to end the war because Russian society and the Russian military would not understand it.
The Kremlin has engaged in a multi-year effort to justify Putin's maximalist war aims as necessary for the existence of the Russian state and to win public support for a prolonged war until Russia achieves those aims.
Russian state and independent polls since early 2025 show that most Russians support continuing the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is likely taking advantage of this sentiment, which it is actively nurturing to justify Putin's decision to continue war.
Private and public statements from the Kremlin indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand the entire territory of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions before starting peace talks.
Helping Ukraine inflict defeats on Russian forces on the battlefield remains essential to efforts to persuade Putin to reconsider his position on the war and negotiations.
On the other hand, "Reuters" reported that the Russian General Staff recently informed Putin that the front line in Ukraine was likely to "collapse" within two to three months.
The Russian General Staff almost certainly gives Putin a positive assessment of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
The Russian military has a widespread culture of lying and presenting overly positive reports to superiors, and this culture is likely a problem even at the highest echelons of the Russian military.
The late financier of the "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly alleged that Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov and then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu lied to Putin about Russia's military actions.
On August 4, Russia announced that it would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, likely as a rhetorical response to U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 announcement of the redeployment of U.S. nuclear submarines to Russia.
However, Russia's withdrawal from the INF Treaty does not portend a change in Russia's use of short- and medium-range missiles.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasov Yar. Russian forces recently advanced near Liman, Siversk, and Toretsk.