It is becoming increasingly likely that US and Russian presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting in the coming days to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump wants to use the power of his personality to reach an agreement, believing that Moscow's six-month intransigence can be overcome by meeting Putin face-to-face. He still seems to cling to the idea that the Kremlin can be persuaded to stop the war, although his Russian counterpart recently reiterated his maximalist position that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one and that wherever a Russian soldier steps, there is Russia.
Everyone is asking one thing - when will the war in Ukraine end? The answer, however, is not simple. The American television network CNN has outlined five scenarios for the end of Russia's war against Ukraine:
1. Putin agrees to an unconditional ceasefire
This scenario is highly unlikely. It is unrealistic for Putin to agree to a ceasefire in which the front lines remain as they are - the United States, Europe and Ukraine already requested such a pause in May, under threat of sanctions, and Russia rejected it. Putin believes that his army is now advancing on the front line and winning. He will not want to stop the fighting.
2. Pragmatism and more negotiations
In this scenario, the parties would agree to further negotiations when winter sets in and the front line literally freezes. By then, Putin may have captured the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka and Kupyansk, giving him a solid position to wait out the winter and regroup. A new offensive will begin in 2026. Putin could raise the issue of elections in Ukraine to question Zelensky’s legitimacy and even remove him from office in favor of a pro-Russian candidate.
3. Another two years of war
In this scenario, U.S. and European military aid to Ukraine helps minimize losses on the front lines in the coming months and makes Putin seek negotiations as his military once again fails to deliver on its promises. Pokrovsk may fall and other eastern Ukrainian strongholds may be threatened, but Ukraine will survive. There have already been discussions in Europe about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as a security guarantor, although no such decision has been made and some members are firmly opposed.
Tens of thousands of European NATO troops could be deployed around Kiev and other major cities, providing logistical and intelligence support to Ukraine to create enough of a deterrent for Moscow to decide to leave the front lines as they are. This is the best Ukraine can hope for. It is important to note that to date, no decision has been made to send NATO troops to Ukraine.
4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO
In this scenario, Trump abandons Europe and Ukraine. Europe is doing everything it can to support Kiev, but it cannot tip the scales without American support. Putin sees small successes in eastern Ukraine turn into a slow rout of Ukrainian forces in the flat, open terrain between the Donbass and the central cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhia, and the capital. Ukrainian defenses are weakened, and the crisis over Kiev’s military power is turning into a political catastrophe, with Zelensky demanding a broader mobilization to support the country’s defense. Kiev is in danger, and Putin’s forces are advancing.
European powers are assessing that it would be better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later on the actual territory of the European Union. But European leaders ultimately do not have the political mandate to engage in a war on the ground in Ukraine. Putin is pressing ahead. NATO is failing to provide a unified response. This is Europe’s nightmare, but it is also the end of a sovereign Ukraine.
5. Disaster for Putin: The Afghan Scenario
In this scenario, Russia continues to lose thousands of its soldiers a week for relatively small territorial gains, watching sanctions erode its alliance with China and its revenues from India. The economic hardships among the Russian population become toxic for the Kremlin, and Putin’s political miscalculations play a bad joke on it. This was ultimately the case with the Soviet Union’s fruitless occupation of Afghanistan. Prigozhin’s rebellion showed that Putin may seem invincible, but this is only apparent.
The problem with this scenario is that it remains more of an illusion: it is precisely this that is the greatest hope of Western countries, which are neither ready to enter Ukraine against the Russian army nor to arm Ukraine to win the war.