Legendary American investor Jim Rogers warned that the prolonged rise in global financial markets could be followed by an extremely severe collapse. At the same time, he named the Chinese yuan as a currency that could become a preferred haven for his capital in the future.
The 83-year-old investor said during an event in Hong Kong that he plans to sell some of his shares and increase the proportion of available funds in his portfolio due to fears of a serious correction in the markets. According to him, global stock markets have gone through an unusually long period of growth, which increases the likelihood of a sharp decline.
“In theory, it should be the yuan“
Rogers said that if the Chinese currency were fully convertible, he would prefer to hold some of his funds in it.
He said the dollar is likely to appreciate sharply during a period of market panic, as investors traditionally turn to it. After that, however, it will have to look for an alternative, and according to Rogers, the logical candidate is the Chinese renminbi.
The main obstacle remains China's currency regime. The yuan is not yet fully freely convertible and the movement of capital across Chinese borders is subject to significant controls.
Rogers believes that this will gradually change. According to him, the scale of the Chinese economy will create increasing pressure for freer capital movements and ultimately for full currency convertibility.
Then why does he hold dollars?
Despite his criticism of the US financial situation, Rogers continues to buy dollars for now.
The reason is pragmatic. According to the investor, the US currency no longer fully deserves its reputation as a safe haven, but market participants continue to perceive it as such. This is precisely what could lead to strong demand for dollars in the event of a new financial crisis.
Rogers has also been warning for years about the huge US national debt. In the interview, he said that US debt is already approaching $40 trillion, which he believes poses a serious long-term risk to the US currency and economy.
Chinese yuan to appreciate in 2026
His comments come at a time when the Chinese currency is showing tangible strength. As of early August, the yuan had appreciated by about 3.6% against the dollar and 5.5% against the euro since the beginning of 2026, according to a Reuters analysis.
Some analysts believe that Beijing may allow the currency to appreciate further in response to increasing pressure from the US and Europe due to China's huge trade surplus.
A stronger yuan would also relieve some Chinese companies with large debts in dollars or euros. Among the potential winners, Reuters points to large state-owned enterprises and Chinese airlines, whose foreign liabilities would decrease in value in local currency.
Rogers is preparing for a market decline
The more important part of the investor's message, however, is the warning about stocks. Rogers says he intends to increase the proportion of cash because he expects the next big decline to be “extremely bad“.
This does not mean that he is predicting a specific date for the crash. Rather, it is about his investment strategy given that a number of markets have gone through a prolonged period of rise.
Rogers is known for his countercyclical approach. He co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and is widely known for his early prediction of the long-term rise of commodities in the late 1990s.
His message now is paradoxical: in an immediate crisis, he still prefers the dollar, but in the longer term he sees the Chinese yuan as a potential alternative. However, everything depends on whether Beijing will allow the free movement of Chinese currency and capital.