China's population has been declining since 2022, falling by 1.39 million people in 2024. How is China solving the demographic crisis? Following other developed countries, China has entered its "silver age", when the number of elderly citizens is inexorably increasing, and the birth rate is declining. In 2024, 9.54 million people were born in the country, and 10.93 million died. The birth and death rates are 6.77 and 7.76 per 1,000 people, respectively.
There are 719 million men, while there are 689 million women. The number of citizens over the age of 60 has reached 310 million people (22% of the country's population). People aged 16 to 59 accounted for 60.9% (857 million people).
The urban population was 943.5 million, the rural population - 464.78 million people. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, the country's population has been declining since 2022, decreasing by 850 thousand people in the same year, by 2.08 million in 2023, and by 1.39 million in 2024 to 1.4 billion.
Since the late 1970s, the PRC has implemented a strict demographic policy of "One Family - One Child", aimed at limiting the birth rate. With some exceptions, families were allowed to have only one child. It was completely abolished in January 2016. All families are now allowed to have two children.
In 2021, the Chinese authorities allowed families to have three children. This measure was taken to improve the demographic structure and implement a strategy to respond to the country's aging population.
According to the results of the seventh population census, conducted at the end of 2020, the number of citizens is 1.41 billion people. At the same time, the birth rate fell to 1.3. According to local media, the low birth rate leads to a decrease in the population and increased aging, which in turn weakens the potential for economic and social development.
New policy to stimulate the birth rate
In the fall of 2024, the State Council of the People's Republic of China issued 13 new measures to support the birth rate. The directive issued by the Chinese government includes a series of measures to support birth rates in four key areas. First, improving the quality of reproductive services by recommending that relevant regions include maternity health insurance for flexible workers, migrant workers and people in new forms of employment who participate in basic health insurance.
The measures also include improving the maternity leave system to ensure compliance with statutory leave periods, including maternity leave, paternity leave and parental leave.
It is also proposed to establish a maternity subsidy system and strengthen reproductive health services, recommending that regions include appropriate methods of pain relief during childbirth and assisted reproductive technology projects in the scope of health cost reimbursement.
The second area is aimed at strengthening the child care system, including measures to improve the quality of pediatric health services and ensure that health insurance covers the costs of medicines needed by children in a timely manner. This also includes increasing the provision of inclusive childcare services and improving policies to support inclusive childcare.
The third area is to strengthen support measures in the fields of education, housing and employment, including supporting primary and secondary schools to provide active extracurricular activities and encouraging local authorities to introduce specific measures for families with several children attending the same school.
This also includes strengthening policies to support housing construction and encouraging relevant areas to increase support for large families when purchasing a home. And it encourages companies to allow employers to use flexible working hours and teleworking according to actual conditions, creating a family-friendly working environment.
In addition, the measures include actively promoting a new culture of marriage and childbearing, as well as actively promoting positive views on marriage, parenthood and family. This includes conducting public awareness campaigns and raising awareness about demographic conditions and policies in the country by including appropriate content in primary, secondary and undergraduate schools.
"The document emphasizes protecting women's rights in their profession, as having children may lead to some difficulties in career development. The new measures will help ease the conflict between motherhood and career," CGTN quoted Yang Zhuhua, a professor at the Central University for Nationalities, as saying.
According to Xinhua, in regions of China, local governments are offering cash rewards in a "latest attempt to increase the birth rate and cope with the aging society".
For example, in Hohhot city in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the city government plans to provide one-time subsidies of 10,000 yuan (about $1,400) to couples who have their first child.
And those who have a second child will receive 10,000 yuan per year until the child is five years old. For a third child or more, the annual subsidy is 10,000 yuan, and by the time the child reaches 10 years old, the total amount reaches 100,000 yuan, which is relatively high compared to other cities.
The Global Times quoted demographer He Yafu as saying that the proposed measures are comprehensive and could potentially increase China's current birth rate. He noted that several local governments have already introduced fertility subsidy policies, but these subsidies are generally not enough to increase the birth rate. Therefore, the expert believes that it is necessary to increase the support for fertility from the central government, which has greater financial resources.
"However, changing the population's desire to have children is a long-term process. Immediate results from this incentive policy cannot be expected within one or two years. The strength and continuity of the policy are crucial. The public will continue to watch,” the Global Times quoted Li Jianming, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development at Nankai University, as saying.
Fundamental institutional reforms are needed, she said, especially in the areas of income distribution and health care.
“For example, we need to find ways to combat the ‘motherhood penalty,’ where after giving birth, women face limited employment opportunities, lower incomes and fewer chances for promotion,” she said.
Policies to boost birth rates were a focus for delegates at China’s parliamentary session held in Beijing in March this year. A number of lawmakers have put forward proposals to improve the maternity leave system, subsidies provided by employers and the state, and support for birth rates.
According to China's National Health Commission, many regions in China are implementing subsidy policies aimed at increasing birth rates and childcare. Assisted reproductive medicine services are now included in basic health insurance in nearly 20 provinces across the country.
According to UN projections, China's population could decline to 1.3 billion by 2050. and fall to 800 million by 2100.
Previously, we wrote about the demographic challenges and consequences of population growth faced by the countries of Central Asia.
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