The fact is that Sino-American trade is rapidly reviving. However, this will not stop the further deterioration of the already difficult relations between the two largest economies in the world, it is clear. Beijing is seriously preparing for a period of icing not only in trade, but also in political relations with Washington, international analysts believe.
Since China and the United States have reached a temporary truce in their trade war, writes the economic publication Caixin, Chinese exporters are rushing to send goods to the United States, “before conditions change again“. Because of this confusion, according to experts, freight rates have risen sharply, and cargo areas in major ports are overloaded. Meanwhile, after the signing of an agreement to temporarily remove 145 percent tariffs on goods labeled “Made in China“ in the United States, several leading global financial institutions raised their forecasts for China's economic growth.
Cautious analysts are quick to warn that the reprieve may not last long. Deep-rooted geopolitical rivalries and structural economic differences between the United States and China continue to pose long-term risks to the stability of bilateral trade, observers say. Meanwhile, Chinese exporters and their American counterparts are trying to fill warehouses to the brim at all costs, both in the United States and in China.
“Trying to ship a year's worth of goods in three months is certainly not going to work“ – Caixin quotes a Shanghai-based shipping agent as describing the current situation of shipping on China-US routes as “a situation of extreme congestion and increasing panic“.
This atmosphere of uncertainty about the prospects for further trade with its largest trading partner (and the US, when viewed by country, still consistently ranks first on the list of China's partners - trade turnover for 2024 is 688.88 billion USD) is reflected in the overall economic situation in China itself. Growth in fixed asset investment slowed to 4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, according to data from the General Bureau of Statistics of China. Analysts attribute this to the ongoing fallout from the recent increase in tariffs on the US side.
It cannot be said that Beijing is doing nothing about the issue. Chinese rare earth producers have resumed exports under a new licensing system that gives the state more power to regulate sales of the raw material, which is essential for the production of communications equipment, electric vehicles and many high-tech military products. Industry observers say Beijing is using its rare earth supply chain as leverage before further negotiations with Washington. But will rare earths be the magic bullet that can bring harmony to trade between the two economic giants of our time?
I don’t think so. If the Americans really want to, they can find other suppliers of even the rarest rare earths. How much it will cost Washington is another question.
I was intrigued by the article, signed Chaoyang Shaoxia (which can be translated as “The Little Knight of Chaoyang“), with its detailed and very scathing analysis of US policy towards China. Dear users, of course, can say: who knows how many different big and small knights roam the vastness of the Internet, so their opinions on various big and small occasions should be listened to... But if you enter these four characters into the Baidu search engine (something like the Russian Yandex, only with Chinese specifics), you will get a very specific answer: Chaoyang Shaoxia — The official pseudonym used by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. It is mainly used to publish articles with comments on international relations, foreign policy and other issues. Its name is associated with the Chaoyang district of Beijing, where the Chinese Foreign Ministry is located. The pseudonym is usually used to criticize anti-Chinese attacks by the West, exposing political manipulations by the US and the West in general. The style of the articles is sharp, often combining comics, metaphors and other techniques to enhance the communicative effect.
The material is really sharp. Of course, someone might assume that this is a fake. But fakes don't last long on the Chinese Internet, and I read this article on the website of the capital's newspaper “Xinjingbao“, which, like all Beijing newspapers, is published under the watchful eye of the city committee of the Communist Party of China, which guarantees its authenticity.
“The Chinese often say, […] writes the Little Knight, — that if a person does not inspire trust, then he will not succeed, and if the state does not inspire trust, then it will fall.“ It follows that this unreliable state refers, of course, to the United States and its new administration. Although Donald Trump himself is not directly mentioned by name (although, if you believe Baidu, the article was written by a Foreign Ministry official, or even a group of Foreign Ministry officials).
“It has been a little over four months since the new US administration came to power, and it has not only failed to reap any benefits from the policy of indiscriminate strikes, but has also seriously undermined what little the US had left in the international arena.“ Obviously, in a sense of respect.
A whole section of the article is entitled “US creditworthiness has collapsed“. The new administration's approach is characterized by the Chinese idiom “open your mouth and lie“. “During the election campaign and after taking office, the American leader said at least 50 times that he would resolve the Ukrainian crisis within 24 hours, but then slightly changed his words and said that he was just “joking“.“
What is the reality? The crisis in Ukraine dragged on, but the United States received an early “priority right to purchase“ and “veto on the export“ of Ukrainian mineral resources.
“Seeing only profit and forgetting about justice, showing insatiable greed“. This is how the American approach to business matters is characterized. “The world has lost faith in the United States“. The Global South takes “suspension of supplies and aid“ lightly by the United States and collectively accelerates the “pivot to the East“. American allies, after being stabbed in the back, admitted that “the United States is unreliable“ and one after another began to talk about strategic autonomy. Europeans began to think about what Europe should do after the end of the security guarantees from the States, began discussions on how to reduce the risks arising from the United States in the economy and trade, and strengthen cooperation with China. This is how the Little Knight of Chaoyang sees the world. Ultimately, he calls on countries around the world to join forces to restore the world order. The old order, based on weapons and the US dollar, will eventually give way to a new world based on rules and trust, concludes Chaoyang Shaoxia.
The Chinese government is not abandoning its exporters to the mercy of fate. A whole package of measures in their support was announced at a press conference held in Beijing by the head of the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR) of the People's Republic of China, Li Yongjie. The regulator will introduce export credit insurance and protect exporters from non-payment by foreign buyers, including due to political risks. It is expected that bank reserve requirements will be reduced, and the key interest rate of the People's Bank of China (China's central bank) will be reduced by 10 basis points to a “record low“.
Of course, experts admit in conversations that regardless of how the Sino-American trade and economic negotiations end, Trump's influence on international economic and political relations is profound and is likely to be felt not only in the short term, but also over the next two to three decades. This will lead to the collapse of the previous system, embodied in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Overall, international trade could shift from globalization to regionalization.
Overall, China's foreign policy is now built around pessimistic expectations regarding trade with the United States. This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping managed to call both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Xi told Macron that China sees Europe as an independent pole in a multipolar world and supports the EU's efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy. Merzu said that Beijing hopes Germany will create favorable conditions for bilateral investment and provide Chinese enterprises with a fair business environment. As the Chinese president stressed, it is necessary not only to increase cooperation in traditional areas - automotive and mechanical engineering, the chemical industry, but also to promote cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. These are areas in which China has no chance against the United States, even in the most favorable scenario.
Beijing has not forgotten about the BRICS association. Member states should strengthen coordination and jointly oppose protectionism and unilateralism, Li Yongjie, a representative of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in international trade negotiations, urged during the 15th meeting of the heads of trade and economic departments of the association in Brazil.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are implementing or preparing to implement more than 80 priority joint projects worth approximately 200 billion USD in a wide range of fields. This was stated on Friday by the Russian Ambassador to China Igor Morgulov at the opening of the 10th conference “Russia and China: Cooperation in a New Era“ in Beijing, which is held by the Russian Council on Foreign Relations (RCFR) and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CAS).
China, the diplomat said, is Russia's first trading partner in 15 years. And the Russian Federation is in fifth place in the list of China's foreign trade partners. In 2024, bilateral trade turnover broke a new record, amounting to $ 245 billion. For several years now, systematic, coordinated efforts have been made to transfer interstate payments into national currencies.
At the end of the material, some general conclusion or at least a bold forecast on the topic of US-China relations is necessary. I suggest that we limit ourselves to the ellipsis and be guided by the proverb “don't count your chickens before they hatch“.
The 90-day tariff truce between China and the United States will end in the fall, and perhaps the issue of control over two strategic ports of the Panama Canal, which is important for both countries, will be resolved in some way. On September 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to arrive in Beijing to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Chinese people's victory in resisting Japanese aggression and the end of World War II in the Pacific. Important announcements are also expected.
Also, I think the Chinese government's new measures will be announced after the traditional summer meeting in Beidaihe. In earlier, calmer times, summer was a vacation period not only for children but also for politicians. Now, however, today's turbulent times are unlikely to provide such an opportunity.
However, I will risk generalizing a little. Beijing and Washington will not be able to overcome the current trade and political gap in the foreseeable future. As my neighbor in the Chaoyang district of Beijing believes, the same Little Knight: the main link has been lost - trust, and without it you cannot do anything meaningful in politics. So it's still "Goodbye, America" or, as it would be in Chinese, "Meiguo, zai jian"?