A few weeks after the historic meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, a ceasefire in Ukraine remains beyond the horizon. In general, in recent months they have been raising hopes for a quick end to the war, but this has never happened. Why?
The general answer is: Because the West doesn't understand Russia's motivation to fight.
The US President wonders why his Russian counterpart isn't thrilled by the generous offers, even going so far as to state how disappointed he is with Putin.
"The Game" Trump's is more or less the following: Russia ceases fire and sits down at the negotiating table, in return for which Moscow returns to the map of international business (G-8, G-20, the SWIFT system and from where it was also expelled due to aggression against Ukraine).
However, in Alaska, although some understanding was reached about future business projects, the topic of "Ukraine" remained open. Indeed, why is the "special military operation" more important to Putin than these truly promising economic prospects?
European leaders are currently preparing the 19th package of economic sanctions against Russia. Let us recall that Europe began imposing sanctions immediately after the annexation of Crimea, but Moscow has not complied...
Both the US and the EU are trying to break the Kremlin mainly with economic instruments, believing that economic difficulties will make the Russians more compliant, and the prospects for future growth will further stimulate this compliance. But on both sides of the Atlantic, they clearly do not understand why they are not succeeding.
The military endurance of a country depends not only on the available army, armaments and military industry, but also on another, often underestimated factor - the ability of the population to endure the inevitable wartime difficulties and deprivations. And in this respect, the Russian population is extremely strong, incomparably more than the population of any NATO country.
War is not just a clash of human mass, steel and gunpowder (nowadays - also electronics). War is also a clash of motivations.
The motivation of the Ukrainians is understandably high - they are fighting a battle for survival. However, Western military strategists underestimate the Russian motivation, expecting it to be at the level of a Western society put in the place of the Russian one.
We don't seem to notice that the "three-day special military operation" has been going on much longer than the Covid pandemic. Do you remember how exhausted we were after a year and a half of restrictions? And Russia has been under international pressure for 3 and a half years now...
Contrary to widespread opinion, sanctions against Russia are working. In the sense that they are making life worse for the Russian population. What they are not achieving is subjugating Moscow. Because for the majority of Russians, this war is not only against Ukraine, but also against the "collective West".
And they are ready to endure any hardship, if necessary, even to eat sawdust, just so as not to fall to their knees before the "collective West". While returning to some international economic organizations is of no particular importance to the average Russian - nor is the fact that his country is currently in serious international isolation of any significance.
The economic pressure would affect societies like ours (for a Bulgarian, it is most painful to be hit in the pocket), as well as the modern, severely spoiled Western European nations, but not today's Russian society.
And here I will allow myself an imaginary comparison:
In a parallel universe on February 24, 2022, not the Russian, but the Bulgarian head of state announces a "special military operation" - but not in Ukraine, but in North Macedonia. Bulgarian military units cross our southwestern border and "Skopje in three days" It will become a reality when the EU and the US step in to help our brothers in the Vardar region, and we begin to suffer blows - our membership in the EU is frozen, funds are suspended, a series of sanctions are imposed on us, and Bulgarian football clubs are removed from European tournaments (given the state of our national team, the removal from World and European Championship qualifications is accepted with relief, and we have removed ourselves from Eurovision). Already in the fall of 2022, serious unrest against the war begins in our society, and by the summer of 2023, everyone has already drawn one on Macedonia (which is otherwise in their hearts) and is ready to sit at the negotiating table, just to end this torment.
But let's get back to our reality. If Reagan and Thatcher won the Cold War and caused the collapse of the USSR, this was due not only to economic shocks, but also to the fact that in the second half of the 1980s, Soviet society (both in Russia and in the other republics) was already deeply demoralized, and pro-Western sentiment was perhaps at a record high in Russian history.
It is clear that carrots will not do. Then - sticks? (As happened in Afghanistan a few decades ago.)
It would be logical for the Kremlin to "soften" if it starts to suffer serious military losses, and not just economic ones. However, in order to achieve this, Ukraine needs to receive all the military aid it insists on. And not, as before - just to hold the front.
Ursula von der Leyen's statement that a third of the weapons provided to Ukraine come from Bulgaria is as much a compliment to our country as a condemnation of the EU (and also a reproach to the US, although Washington is far from being obliged to solve Europe's problems).
Bulgaria is 19th out of 27 economies in the EU (by total GDP) - what the hell are the others doing? It is very clear that this way there is no way to provide Ukraine with the much-desired one million shells...
Russia does not want a carrot, it wants a stick - and until Western leaders realize this simple truth, there will be no peace in Ukraine.
Either there will be "русский мир". With all the ensuing consequences.
At the same time, Russia began to experience a shortage of gasoline only after the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. And not as a result of the latest package of sanctions...