Author: Georgi Lozanov
DV: Prof. Tagarev, the incursion of drones into the skies of NATO countries - Poland, Estonia, Denmark - has become more frequent, drones were also detected in France. There are hardly any others besides Russian, but is this confirmed by sufficient data?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: There is no doubt about Poland, despite the unconvincing attempts by the Russian side to deny it. In Denmark, where drones have already flown around their major airports and military base several times, the defense minister said that they were certainly from a "professional player", and their prime minister diplomatically expressed herself that she did not rule out that they were Russian and that Russia was a threat to European security. There are cases in which drones fly over Germany, over units where the "Patriot" systems are deployed or over training grounds where Ukrainian military personnel are trained. So there is no doubt that the drones there are Russian too, and were most likely launched from ships in the Baltic Sea.
There have been many cases, so let's hope that these are incidents, and not deliberate provocations on the part of the Russian side, which at the same time are used to collect intelligence information. In Poland and Estonia, Russia is specifically testing the readiness of its allies - reaction time, how decisions are made, when to act, etc. We can even assume that positions of anti-aircraft missile complexes on Polish territory have been registered, at which missiles were fired from drones. And another effect these Russian provocations seek - to scare people in Europe and make them think about whether to help Ukraine or invest more in their own defense.
DV: About intimidation - clearly, that is the Kremlin's manner in principle, but why does it need to use drones for reconnaissance, isn't that done from space?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: What we are talking about - reaction time, positions, anti-aircraft complexes - is difficult to scout with space systems, and drones are also a cheaper option.
DV: Isn't the reaction to Russian provocations a matter of a common political decision rather than a military one?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: Both, because from a political point of view a decision must be made on how to invest in the system for countering drones, after from a military point of view it was understood that this system does not correspond to the threats that have become so intense in the last few months. You cannot shoot a sparrow with a cannon, i.e. with missiles that cost hundreds of thousands, and some millions, at a drone that costs several thousand dollars. Therefore, in addition to strengthening "Eastern Guard" - the initiative to strengthen the classic air and missile defense, the construction of the so-called wall against drones has also begun.
DV: Is there a political decision to destroy the drones that are used to carry out Russian provocations, or can they be left without a reaction?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: Of course, they must be destroyed. They are unmanned and I don't think this could lead to any kind of escalation that some European leaders fear. The question is whether we have what it takes to destroy them, which in itself is a complex task and requires the "defensive wall" to be built in the best possible modern way.
DV: Do you think that the drone invasion of NATO countries is the third stage of the Russian offensive against the so-called collective West - after the hybrid war and the war in Ukraine?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: This is still part of the hybrid toolkit used by Russia, which is very diverse - for example, there were several ships with Russian crews that cut fiber-optic cables at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, cases of fires, explosions at defense industry enterprises, murders, spy networks, in which, unfortunately, Bulgarian citizens were also involved, etc. Drones for me are another tool of the same order.
DV: Can we expect a next stage in which the Russians, as in Poland, start hitting ground targets?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: This would be a much bigger step in the direction of escalation, but we cannot get inside Putin's head, and everything depends on him. NATO in no way threatens Russia, but Russia threatens NATO - not only Ukraine, the war is no longer only there. All these acts of sabotage on the territory of NATO member states have become Russian policy and Putin will assess how far he wants the escalation to go. The important thing is for European leaders - hopefully supported by the Trump administration - to express a very clear willingness to destroy air targets sent for provocative actions. They must clearly state: We will shoot down drones, we will destroy planes! Whether we will do it is another question, but we must exude firmness. If we start wringing our hands - what should we do now, Medvedev is threatening with nuclear weapons again, or it would be better not to do anything - this would be an invitation to the Kremlin to continue the escalation.
DV: How far have relations between Putin and Trump reached to date - is there an optimistic turn in them from the point of view of Ukraine and European security?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: It seems that Trump has finally begun to take into account the intelligence information that Russia definitely cannot achieve the goals it has set for itself in Ukraine. The summer offensive, with which Putin thought that he would conquer large parts of Ukraine and for which it would be better for it to retreat in advance, turns out to have led to the occupation of less than 0.3% of Ukrainian territory, for which Russia's losses are about half a million killed and wounded. On the other hand, Ukraine manages to hit Russia's energy infrastructure every day, and its capacity to produce and supply energy resources has decreased by 15%, with a tendency to decrease further.
DV: Does Bulgaria continue to intensively help Ukraine in its defense against Russia?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: We continue to help with weapons, ammunition, and investments in its defense industry, but now it is not only us who are helping Ukraine, but Ukraine is also helping our collective security. After the drone invasion of Poland, let's say, a Polish military delegation traveled to Kiev to explain to the Ukrainians how to defend themselves against such threats. They will also assist in building the "wall", and in NATO naval exercises they play "enemy" and provide an opportunity for training in a very real situation – know-how that NATO has nowhere else to get. Ukraine is investing hundreds of millions in military plants in the UK, for example. In general, it is helping in very specific ways so that Europe can develop its defense capacity in line with new threats.
DV: However, isn't Ukraine's big problem that it is running out of manpower?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: I think it is overexposed, because according to the data, 3% of the Ukrainian armed forces operate drones, with which they destroy 30% of Russian manpower and equipment. Even their commander recently said: if you allow me to raise them to 5%, you will see what will happen. Yes, Russia continues to rely on its advantage in manpower, but it is becoming an increasingly desperate move to throw your people into the meat grinder. There are no more armored vehicles, there is no talk of tanks, they are sent on motorcycles, and most often on foot. With light weapons, they will bypass Ukrainian positions in order to go to the rear and try to seize new territories. It is precisely this Russian tactic that Ukraine is very successful with drones, sometimes with artillery.
Of course, it would be better to have a larger army, but do not forget that life goes on in Ukraine - the economy is working, military enterprises, research units, the maintenance and development of cybersecurity, information and communication systems are working... Ukraine cannot afford to send as many people as possible to the front, while falling behind in other areas. By the way, data is coming out that the Ukrainian economy, compared to the previous year, is growing at a fairly decent pace.
DV: What's new on the front - why did motorcycles replace tanks, is the profile of the war changing?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: Tanks have not disappeared completely, but the situation has nothing to do with the beginning of the war, its profile is definitely changing. And this is due to drones, including reconnaissance ones, which give an extremely detailed picture of the battlefield and once a target is seen, it can be destroyed in minutes. So there can hardly be a breakthrough with any tank group, it would be more likely with aviation, but to my surprise in the first months of the war Russia cannot achieve air superiority, as was expected.
DV: Is there a tendency for the war to gradually move into space?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: Not yet, there are international norms that prohibit military actions in space.
DV: Well, what will stop Russia from not complying with these international norms as well?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: Here I think they will be more careful… Besides, we do not know that the Ukrainians have many satellites and if they do, they will not be as big as the Russians, and in space things have changed - the same thing is happening as with tank brigades and drone brigades. Countries are starting to build swarms of much smaller satellites, connected in networks that are far more resistant to damage. So I do not expect space to have a serious impact on war in the near future.
DV: What is the state of our defense and what is the risk that Russia will enter Bulgaria with drones?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: I would not qualify it as a risk, I think it is certain. And then we will again rely on our allies. But God forbid, let's quickly develop capabilities to counter drones, as part of the European project for a "firewall", for which six billion euros have been allocated.
DV: What is the current government doing regarding our defense capabilities, is there any movement?
Prof. Todor Tagarev: Public information is limited. We know that this government did not propose to increase the defense budget, and at the same time, with a pre-election populist gesture, they decided to sharply raise the salaries of the military. That's why I think that all new projects have stalled. I hope I'm wrong and someone refutes me. For now, we can only hope for three billion euros from the European Commission, which we can borrow, but the question is how they will be managed.
We certainly need to strengthen air and missile defense, which is where I assume a large part of the funds will go. It is necessary to assess the real threats, and we will undoubtedly have to develop independently and together with our allies the entire spectrum of drones and countermeasure systems. It is key to this to receive information from Ukraine on what to bet on as a more promising solution.
In general, in order to minimize the risks to the country from outside, and including corruption from within, the most effective way is to join multinational projects for the acquisition of new weapons, such as the "European Sky Shield" initiative, where 15-16 countries with very serious experience participate.