Trump didn't win this year's Nobel Peace Prize, and Norway fears he will decide to retaliate with trade sanctions. But is the whole situation actually not helping the world?
The newly signed agreement between Israel and Hamas may not bring lasting peace to the Gaza Strip, but hopes are high. One of Israel's stated goals for the war is certain to be achieved - Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the EU, the US and others, has said it will return all hostages it still holds to Israel. This breakthrough is largely due to the diplomatic efforts of the Donald Trump administration.
Diplomacy as a path to Trump's dream
Analysts suggest that the impetus for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East also comes from an undisclosed desire of the American president - to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Although this year this desire remained unrealized for Trump - the Nobel Committee chose Maria Corina Machado - the most influential opposition leader of Venezuela, his ambition to receive it affects US foreign policy.
The same desire also motivated Trump's change in attitude towards the war in Ukraine, writes the American magazine "Atlantic". Although he was rather negative about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the beginning of his second term and, as he has done before, has overconfidently trusted Vladimir Putin, Trump has clearly realized that there will be no peace in Ukraine if he continues in the same vein. "Forced to choose between his habit of taking everything Putin says for granted and his hope of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump chose the latter. And that's a good thing," writes Jonathan Chait in "The Atlantic".
Will Trump get revenge on Norway?
Donald Trump loves to be praised - something he has demonstrated more than once. In his opinion, the greatest praise for a job well done would be the Nobel Peace Prize. He has emphasized this repeatedly. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly described himself as the greatest peacemaker who has "ended seven endless wars", although he has occasionally made mistakes in the details - for example, between which countries some of these wars were fought. Achieving peace in the Gaza Strip was considered the crucial piece in the peacemaker's puzzle that could really earn him the Nobel Prize.
However, the Nobel Committee in Norway announced that it had decided who would win this year's peace prize a few days before the agreement reached between Israel and Hamas was announced. This, of course, does not rule out the possibility of Donald Trump being awarded the award next year. However, in Norway, they are worried that since this did not happen now, the American president may get angry and direct his dissatisfaction towards Oslo, writes "The Guardian".
It is even claimed that in July Trump asked former NATO Secretary General and current Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg about the Nobel Prize. Analyst and journalist Harald Stanghelle speculated to the British "The Guardian" that it is possible that Trump will react sharply and even impose tariffs on Norway or demand greater investment in NATO from the country, or even declare Oslo an enemy of the United States. The biggest problem is that the American president is unpredictable, the analyst believes.
And if he still wins it?
According to Stanghelle, if Trump were awarded now, "it would be the biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel Prizes". An Ipsos poll commissioned by The Washington Post and published last month found that even about half of Republicans think Trump doesn't deserve one. Only 22% of Americans overall think he should be given one. The big change, of course, remains the negotiated truce between Israel and Hamas - this poll reflects public opinion in the US before it was achieved.
There were no surprises, but one big question remains for the next year, when Trump will probably continue to strive to achieve his cherished goal, writes The Atlantic - whether the expectation of the prize is not more useful and motivating for Trump, who is trying to prove himself as a peacemaker, than being awarded the prize. Once given, these prizes cannot be taken away.
And Trump, having already achieved this cherished desire of his, may again become unpredictable and decide to add something else to his legacy - for example, military achievements. The US administration is already pursuing such a goal, attacking the "drug cartels" in Venezuela. Ironically, this year's winner of the Nobel Prize, which Trump dreamed of, became a Venezuelan. In its motivation, the Nobel Committee stated that it was awarding Maria Corina Machado because she "keeps the flame of democracy bright amidst the increasing darkness".