Comment by Dirk Emmerich:
Hard times await Europe. This is not news. China is overtaking the West in the economy, the US is questioning the transatlantic partnership. Geostrategic coordinates are shifting. It has been clear for many years: Europe must determine its own interests and goals. But far from enough has been done in this direction.
Now Donald Trump's policy is causing a new shock. For almost four decades, the US government has published a document entitled “National Security Strategy” every few years. Usually, this does not cause much of a stir. This time, things are different.
The document, which is only 33 pages long, reads like a direct attack on Europe. The continent is presented as a zone of failure: “Its economic decline is overshadowed only by the real and gloomy prospect of the demise of civilization.” The strategy sharply criticizes migration policy and accuses EU countries of a lack of freedom of speech. Europe is threatened with “civilizational extinction,” the document says.
Rupture with the West
This can only be avoided if mass immigration is stopped, European integration is put to an end, and policy towards Ukraine is radically changed, Washington claims. EU countries are more or less openly accused of wanting to prolong Russia’s war against Ukraine in order to achieve unrealistic goals. If Europe had not intervened in the situation after the Alaska summit in August, believing that Trump had given in too much to Putin, and had simply accepted the 28-point plan for Ukraine, distributed by Washington in November, the peace process would be much more advanced today. The strategy does not say this directly, but its theses can be interpreted in this way.
The common values and multilateral alliances that have been the basis of Western policy for decades are a thing of the past. New rules now apply: national interests and the right of the strong. These are the new guidelines of world politics. International law and the UN are becoming relics of the last century. In essence, Washington's new strategy only summarizes what the Trump administration has been declaring and practicing since the moment the president took office. Let us recall Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference or the scandal with Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House.
While the new strategy discusses Europe in detail, Russia and China are mentioned only briefly. Accordingly, Moscow’s reaction has been favorable. “The changes we are observing largely correspond to our views,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the issue.
For months, many commentators have claimed that the United States has sided with Russia. From Europe’s perspective, it may indeed appear that way. In reality, however, the United States is defending its new national interests. It wants to end the war in Ukraine at any cost, and is therefore ready to accept many of Putin’s demands. Washington may be counting on Russia becoming a better partner for the US than China in the geostrategic rivalry of the 21st century.
Europe's moment of truth
The transatlantic alliance, which has existed for 80 years, is on the verge of disintegration, and perhaps even complete collapse. Europe is still trying to come to terms with this reality. Meanwhile, the US government has made no secret of its intention to support political forces in Europe that reject the status quo and are considered "patriotic" in Washington. Yes, many of the statements in the US national security strategy are not new. But now, for the first time, this has been fixed in writing.
Foreign policy expert for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Norbert Röttgen speaks of a new "trenchment era". Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz first spoke about such a thing in 2022, after the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Now, according to Rötgen, the MAGA movement wants to fundamentally change the internal order in Europe. If it succeeds, the European Union in its current form will not survive. Will the EU, with its 27 countries and completely different national interests, be able to cope with this challenge? If it is really as strong as it constantly claims, it must prove it now. Yes, difficult times are definitely coming for Europe.