In Russia, the narcotic effect of the propaganda about the war in Ukraine is weakening. Prices are rising, but wages are not. And gradually confusion sets in: How come we are winning, many are asking themselves. And they understand that something is wrong.
DV: Russia's war against Ukraine has been going on for 4 years now. Has it changed Russian society in any way?
Dmitry Oreshkin: Society, of course, is changing. Now it is in a phase in which misunderstanding, disappointments, cognitive dissonance, etc. are slowly accumulating. I think that quite soon this will manifest itself in some abrupt change. For now, we are only seeing gradual changes. The most important thing: although slowly, the narcotic effect of the fog imposed on this war is already weakening. At the beginning of it, sociologists reported a jump in support for Vladimir Putin by 20-25 percent. In peacetime, this drug does not work: people think about education, healthcare, utility prices - in a word, about life's problems. And the rating is falling. Since 2024, support for Putin has fallen by about 10 percent. I think that in the coming months this decline will accelerate.
"Everyone understands that something is wrong here"
DV: A recent survey by the Levada Center shows that 66% of Russians support the resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, while only 26% are in favor of continuing the war - the lowest figure in four years. What is the reason?
Dmitry Oreshkin: Exactly - that it weakens the effect of the drug. "We must unite, support the leader, the leader, because otherwise they will trample us, they will take our oil wealth" and so on - all this striving for mobilization is slowly fading. The war is becoming a routine and against this background people have problems. The older ones - because they need medicine, and the younger ones have to think about the education of their children, about the problems with their professional development. Two years ago, huge sums were invested in the economy. Jobs appeared, salaries increased and people looked at things positively. But now the growth of salaries has stopped, and prices continue to rise. Therefore, confusion sets in: "How so, we are winning", many say. The capture of Kupyansk is cited as good news from the front - only they have already captured it three times, and at least once a month they assure us that full control over Pokrovsk has been established. Everyone understands that something is wrong here“.
"For Russians, a symbolic victory is more important than the quality of life"
DV: Compromises are part of all negotiations. Are Russians ready to compromise?
D. Oreshkin: I think so. The majority understands that an agreement will have to be reached under certain conditions. And they must be “our conditions“, public opinion believes. But what does “our conditions“ mean? Comrade Putin must explain that.
DV: At the same time, 60% of Russians are against the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine. In other words: we want peace, but let ours stay there. How should we understand this?
D. Oreshkin: In the following way: “We shed hot Russian blood“. Why? To get piles of broken bricks, which, however, in the minds of the average Soviet or post-Soviet person represent historical value. This mentality, focused on territorial conquests, is also a purely Soviet feature. It is deeply rooted in the traditions of expansionist policy. When Comrade Putin says that wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps, there is our land, he hardly knows that he is literally quoting Genghis Khan, who said: “The borders of our possessions are determined by where the hoof of a Mongol horse steps“.
But the problem is that in the 21st century, territorial expansion and economic growth, unlike in the 14th century, no longer go hand in hand. Japan, for example, is smaller in area than the Arkhangelsk region. Japan has a population of 127 million, and Russia has about 145 million. Japan has no oil, gas, gold, timber, or diamonds, but its gross domestic product is twice as large as Russia's. How is this possible? It's called intensive use of geographical space. That's exactly what Russia should be doing. But the mentality is: we need more territory. Against the backdrop of a declining population, this is counterproductive and irrational. For the masses in Russia, some symbolic victory is far more important than improving the quality and length of people's lives, the quality of education, healthcare, housing, utilities, etc.
"As long as he controls information and financial flows, Putin will hold on to power"
DW: How tightly does Putin still hold on to power?
D. Oreshkin: The elites are not homogeneous. A significant part of the business elite and the Kremlin elite also understand that the war is at a standstill. Rational people understand that things are heading towards a dead end. But they also understand that if you now come out and say: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, you are in trouble. Resign“, the direct consequence of this would be fatal. The elite understands very well that an attempt to overthrow this regime is simply dangerous. So they will look you in the eye, wag their tail and lick your hand. But at the level of specific decisions, both the elites and the population will sabotage some of the most hateful initiatives. Not for ideological reasons, but purely practical ones.
DV: So some smaller protest outbursts are possible, like those in the Far East, but we shouldn't expect a nationwide uprising, right?
D. Oreshkin: First, we should completely forget about a popular uprising. This is a fairy tale from the party manual, where the people rise up and overthrow a hated regime. Power changes through the division of the elite - when one part of it, taking advantage of the people's discontent, displaces another part. Secondly, if we are talking about protests by ordinary people, they will be inevitable, but they will be categorically apolitical - about garbage, utility prices, inflation, the environment. Not against the tsar, but against injustice or the arbitrary exercise of power by local authorities.
This is an important sign that discontent exists, but it erupts in such infantile forms. And at the top, everyone is too closely monitored by the security services for anyone to be able to organize a conspiracy. So, although Putin faces some fundamental difficulties, this does not mean at all that he can lose power, as long as he controls the flows of information, finances and raw materials.
"Putin is looking at how to continue this war, not how to end it"
DV: Ukrainian drones and missiles are hitting targets in some Russian regions as well, and many in the West are wondering whether Russians really don't feel the war at home.
D. Oreshkin: The war is not felt in Moscow, everything is fine there. I have many friends there and they are in this information bubble. When you control the information flows, you can always explain that the strikes on Belgorod are a manifestation of the “militaristic and Nazi“ nature of Ukraine. And smart public opinion, nodding its rectangular head, pulled out of the TV, will agree with this. And no one will ask the question: why wasn't Belgorod shelled before this war began? No one will even ask the question whether the lives of people in Belgorod, in Sudzha, Donetsk or anywhere else have become better after Vladimir Putin took up their defense. We are trying to give some rational explanations here, and public opinion in Russia simply ignores these arguments.
DV: In your opinion, will Putin attack a NATO country - Latvia or any other Baltic state?
D. Oreshkin: I think the situation is not as scary as it seems. But on the other hand, I thought the same way in 2022: I didn't believe that Putin could be so crazy as to start a war that he wouldn't win. Nevertheless, he started it. But I think that collective Putin, after four years of bloodshed and losing 45 trillion rubles during that time, will seriously consider attacking NATO.
Although for Putin himself personally, continuing the war may be a more preferable option than ending it. Because if he ends it, people will start to wake up and feel a hangover: “The war is over, and where are the improvements?“, they will ask themselves. That is why, perhaps, for Putin, the endless war of East Asia and Eurasia is a normal state, which allows him to keep the population inspired and mobilized. I think that if he gets out of this war, they will try to prevent him from starting a new one. But it is extremely difficult for him to get out of this war.