Iceland has traditionally prided itself on its independence and self-reliance. The country is a member of NATO, but not of the EU. For a long time, it showed no interest in membership. Now, however, Icelanders are reconsidering their positions. Why?
The joke of the newly appointed US ambassador to Reykjavik, Billy Long, never managed to make anyone laugh in Iceland: last month, he joked to several congressmen that Iceland could soon become the 52nd state of the US, and he himself its governor. The diplomat made this statement at a very inopportune moment - the US's European NATO partners are already worried about President Trump's ambitions to annex Greenland as the 51st US state.
The outrage in Iceland was not long in coming. The Icelandic Foreign Ministry demanded an explanation, negative comments poured in on social media, and thousands of Icelanders signed a petition demanding that Long not be given accreditation. The Republican was then forced to backtrack: the comment was not meant seriously, he assured. "If anyone felt offended, I apologize," said the newly appointed ambassador.
A place under the European protective umbrella?
The fact that Icelanders react particularly sensitively to such statements is due not least to the recent debate between US President Trump and NATO partners over Greenland. Although Iceland is geographically part of Europe, it is much closer to the Arctic island than to the European continent - only 300 kilometers as the crow flies separate Iceland from Greenland. Accordingly, fears are growing that it could also become a plaything of the great powers.
How great these fears are is evident from the fact that the volcanic island is seriously considering the possibility of joining the European Union (EU). In fact, Iceland's pro-European center-left government wanted to give its citizens the opportunity to vote on this issue next year, but recent events have forced the referendum to be brought forward - to August 2026.
And the chances of Icelanders saying "yes" are high: according to recent surveys, 45% of voters on the island support joining the EU, while 35% are against. As early as early 2025, a survey by public broadcaster RUV found that three-quarters of respondents saw the US as a source of threat.
Source of tension: fisheries policy
Icelands have traditionally prided themselves on their independence and self-reliance, which is probably partly due to their geographical isolation. The island republic gained independence from Denmark in 1944, and since then, June 17 has been celebrated as a national holiday.
For decades, full membership of the EU has not been a hot topic for Icelanders. The country is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows it to benefit from all the benefits of the European internal market and be part of the Schengen area.
Full membership, however, has so far failed mainly because of the EU's fisheries policy. The fishing industry is the most important economic sector in Iceland, and as an EU member, the country will have to comply with the Community's common fisheries policy. Reykjavik will be forced to open its fish-rich waters to vessels from other EU countries, will lose national control over catch quotas, and will likely have to fear rapid depletion of fish stocks.
Alienation from Washington
Furthermore, although Iceland is a founding member of NATO, the island nation does not have its own army - despite the fact that the country occupies an increasingly important geostrategic position in the North Atlantic. For decades, it has relied on the US as a protective force, but now that very force is being viewed more critically.
But the problem is not just about Greenland: the fact that US President Trump has also imposed 15% punitive tariffs on Iceland is hitting this country, which is so dependent on fish exports, particularly hard, leading to further alienation. After all, the US is Iceland's second-largest trading partner after the EU. So, despite all the concerns about its own fishing industry, joining the EU seems increasingly attractive to many Icelanders.
In times of crisis, Icelanders rely on the EU
This is not the first time in Iceland's history that Reykjavik has moved closer to the EU. In 2008, the island nation was hit hard by the global financial crisis. The country's three largest banks failed, unemployment jumped from almost zero to around ten percent, the Icelandic krona lost much of its value, and the country had to borrow more than two billion dollars from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The country was on the verge of bankruptcy and applied for EU membership, hoping to be included in the eurozone's bailout package. But in the following years, Iceland recovered economically, and the eurosceptic center-right coalition that won the 2013 elections froze accession talks. Enthusiasm among the population gradually waned, and in 2015 the country finally withdrew its application for membership.
Open arms in Brussels
Due to the recently changing geopolitical situation, Icelanders seem to be changing their minds again. Brussels is looking favorably on this change. Iceland is “always welcome” to resume the negotiations, which were suspended in 2015, said EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Koss. “We are maintaining close contacts to respond to the changing geopolitical conditions in these turbulent times”, she wrote in X.
Because Iceland is closely integrated into European structures through the EEA and EFTA, Brussels considers the country a relatively easy negotiating partner. And in the battle with the US for power and spheres of influence, Iceland's accession to the EU would also send a clear signal of strength to Washington.