German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was quick to express his jubilation after Hungarian Peter Magyar stunningly defeated incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the country's parliamentary elections on Sunday, writes "Politico".
"This is a good day and a very clear signal against right-wing populism," he emphasized.
But is Merz right to see Magyar's stunning victory as a rejection of national conservatism and a rebuff to the global far-right movement? Not quite.
While centrist politicians in Europe rejoice at the failure of their "bête noire" and many parties allied with Orban worry that US President Donald Trump is now toxic to their ambitions, they all risk over-interpreting the result of the Hungarian election, which is far from a victory for left-wing liberalism.
This was a race fought on the core issues of the economy and corruption, with Magyar himself at a press conference yesterday attributing his victory to "a good kind of populism." And the result will be a new Hungarian parliament that is entirely right-wing, nationalist and sovereignist.
For MAGA, Magyar's victory was, of course, a shock to the system. When Merz delivered his address yesterday, Washington was still eerily quiet over the fall of the movement’s strongest ideological European ally – affectionately called “the Trump before Trump”. And while leaders across Europe, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, congratulated Magyar, the US president remained silent.
This is telling, as it suggests that Washington also saw Magyar’s victory as a harbinger of an unfavorable trend for the populists. Trump usually cannot refrain from telling the world his every thought. In this case, however, that is not the case - and no wonder.
Trump and MAGA had invested heavily in Hungary to try to tip the scales in Orbán's favor, happily breaking the taboo of interfering in another country's elections.
The American president has supported his ideological Hungarian soulmate half a dozen times, including last Friday, two days before the vote. And he has promised Hungarians that the United States is ready to support their country with "full economic power" if they vote for Orbán. "We are excited to invest in the future prosperity that will be generated by Orbán's continued leadership!" Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
It was MAGA's latest appeal to the Hungarian leader, following a two-day visit by US Vice President J.D. Vance to Budapest to advocate for the prime minister. The expulsion of Vance from Washington - and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio before him - showed how serious the administration is about the Hungarian elections.
"For MAGA, the two most important elections this year are those in Hungary and the midterm elections in the United States," Timothy Ash of the British Chatham House said during the campaign.
Yet, despite all the exhortations, threats and dire warnings - echoing Orbán's own message that without him both Brussels and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would drag Hungary into the war raging across the border - the Hungarians did not believe it.
Yet, this is not the devastating blow to the far right that it is being portrayed as.
Politicians and journalists are often quick to declare one election or another the beginning of a broad and lasting transnational political trend. Sometimes this is true, and elections – especially those that bring about such dramatic change – can indeed be trendsetters. But in most cases, elections do not strictly follow international trends, but instead reflect local political and economic circumstances, or are simply the natural, limited swing of the pendulum.
The latter, perhaps, was the explanation for the landslide victory of the British Labour Party in 2024 – which came to power despite winning fewer votes than in its 2019 election defeat – after 14 years in opposition. It was more a rejection of the Conservatives than of conservatism; evidence of the extreme unpopularity of the Tories (they lost seven million votes compared to 2019), as the party itself admitted that it had wasted its time in power.
No doubt, Magyar's victory will be seen as a symbolic blow to populism, perhaps even more so given the massive efforts of the far right worldwide to support Orban at a difficult time, and Washington's growing determination to increase support for like-minded political players across Europe.
Before the election results, some in the populist movement - such as Orbán ally Frank Furedy, who runs the Brussels-based think tank Matthias Corvinus Collegium - were already ready to admit that the prime minister's defeat would certainly be bad news. "It would be perceived as an ideological or intellectual blow if he lost," Furedy noted.
"We have to remember that Orbán plays a disproportionately influential role in terms of the views of many of these parties and their leaders, who have a strong attachment to him," he said. "I think the defeat would have an impact, at least in the short term, in terms of influencing the political dynamics across the continent."
Here's something a Magyar victory could certainly do: It leaves Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico isolated in the European Council. It will likely discourage other Eurosceptic populists and, as Furedi noted, is a blow to the prestige of far-right movements around the world. It will also likely encourage European populist leaders to distance themselves from MAGA, something that has been happening at a rapid pace since last spring in response to the US president’s economic rebalancing and Vance’s aggressive speech at the Munich Security Conference.
Since then, disapproval of Trump has increased among populist voters in Europe, a warning to right-wing populist parties trying to attract wider support that rapprochement with Trump carries its risks. Approval from the US administration is far from a guarantee of victory and could turn into the kiss of death.
But when it comes to the Hungarian vote, the outcome is not so much about ideology as it is about jobs, a stagnant economy, deteriorating public services and anger over corruption.
As Magyar, who is also conservatively skeptical of Ukraine and unlikely to back down from Orbán’s migration policies, noted: Hungarian history “is not written in Washington, Moscow or Brussels.” And in Hungary, voters were losing patience. They were growing weary of Orbán and his ruling Fidesz party. after 16 years of political dominance.
In fact, the real lesson here for any national conservative and populist leader, or for any incumbent leader, is this: If you fail to deal with the budget issues, you risk defeat.
Or in the words of Magyar himself: "You have to stay with the people".